521
FXUS64 KSHV 202125
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
325 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT THAT THE
WAVE AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPORTING WINTER PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW AM SITS JUST EAST OF PORT ARANSAS,
TX. ALOFT, W/SW WINDS ARE ADVECTING A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK INTO
DEEP EAST TEXAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME, HI-RES SOLUTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT THE RADAR RETURNS EMERGING ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE WINTER PRECIP PROSPECTS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE FA, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
WITH AN AIRMASS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
PRECIP TO FALL NORTH OF WHERE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
LOCATED. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON DOES
SUGGEST THAT SOME MOISTURE COULD WORK FURTHER NORTH, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR BRIEF FLURRIES AND AT MOST A LIGHT DUSTING JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HI-RES SOLUTIONS HAVE ALSO ADVERTISED A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN
MCCURTAIN BEFORE A MORE ROBUST LAYER OF DRY AIR CATCHES UP AND
DRIES THE COLUMN OUT.
WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE ADVERTISING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A TICK
FURTHER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WHAT DOES FALL WILL
STICK, WHICH WILL MAKE ROADS SLICK IF A DUSTING DOES PREVAIL.
AGAIN THOUGH, THE BIG QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW LARGE THESE
FLAKES ARE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIRMASS, AND IF THEY EVEN
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING. THOUGH SOME OF THE HI-RES
SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ONSET WOULD BE A MIX
OF SOME SLEET AND SNOW, MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 500MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
SNOW, EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32 DEG F.
BY MID TUESDAY MORNING, MUCH OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WINTER PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION, WITH PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RESPOND FROM THE LOW 20'S OVERNIGHT AND THE WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS. THESE WIND CHILLS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TONIGHT.
TURNING TO TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL AS THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGHS SETTLES IN. WINDS WILL GO
MOSTLY CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES, PREVAILING ENHANCED RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS WILL BY FAR BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE SEE THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AM IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS JUST
ABOUT AREAWIDE. PRESENT THINKING IS THAT WHAT DOES FALL TONIGHT
SHOULD MELT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REFREEZE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS AND POSSIBLE BLACK ICE.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
BY THURSDAY, THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEG F WARMER ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE
40'S WILL TRANSITION TO 50'S BY FRIDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ALLOW FOR THE WARMING PERIOD TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST, MOISTURE BUILDING NORTH WILL
INTERACT WITH A FRONT STREAMING IN FROM THE NW, ALLOWING FOR THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIME OUT FROM THE WEEKEND
BUT A DECENT SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC NWP
FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE LOW 60'S BY SUNDAY.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 20/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, LOW AC CIGS BETWEEN 8-10KFT OVER MUCH OF N AND ECNTRL TX
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-21Z, AND THE SW AR/N LA
TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z. AREAS OF -SN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID-EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX AS IT SPREADS
E INTO N LA, JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT MUCH OF THE
-SN WILL REMAIN JUST S OF THE I-20 TERMINALS, BUT DID MAINTAIN -SN
MENTION FOR LFK, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY ALSO
AFFECT VSBYS AT TIMES, BUT ANY REDUCTIONS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.
WHILE ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CU SHOULD ALSO SPILL SE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NW BY/AFTER 06Z, THE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER/CLEAR
FROM NW TO SE BY/AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ENE WINDS 6-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 4-8KTS
AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR REPORTS
OF SNOWFALL AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 23 38 20 45 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 23 37 16 42 / 20 20 0 0
DEQ 18 34 14 44 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 23 36 19 46 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 20 36 15 43 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 24 37 21 47 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 23 38 18 46 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 25 39 17 45 / 50 40 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ010>013-
017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ149>153-
165>167.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...15
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