988
FXUS64 KSHV 160329
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
929 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
ASIDE FROM THE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ANVIL CRAWLER
LIGHTNING STRIKE, WE ARE NEARLY DONE WITH RAINFALL FOR THIS
EVENT. THERE ARE A FEW NEW SHOWERS CROPPING UP RIGHT ON THE FRONT
OVER E TX IN THE CENTER VICINITY NOW. THESE HAVE AFFECTED A FEW
SITES WITH A BRIEF SHOWER, BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE FALLING APART
NOW. 40S CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR I-30 CORRIDOR ON GUSTY NW
WINDS. WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREAD DOWN OVER ALL OF
OUR CWA WITH THE FREEZING LINE BISECTING OUR NW AND SE CWA CORNERS.
WIND CHILL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED, SO BUNDLE UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ALL THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AND OR
MOVED OUT, WE WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE OVERNIGHT ZONES ONCE MORE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. /24/
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 819 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST NEAR 25
MPH AND EXTENDS FROM COLFAX TO COLUMBIA TO NOW JUST PAST MONROE.
WE WILL SOON BE ABLE TO FINISH OFF THE REMAINDER OF OUR PARISHES
ONCE THE LINE CLEARS OUR CWA OR MAYBE BEFORE EXPIRATION.
INTERESTINGLY, THE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE LINE IS NOW
BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE CATCHING THE WIND FRESH OFF OF
THE GULF OF AMERICA. 40S ARE NOW ENTERING THE NE TX COUNTIES WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. /24/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE LATEST TIMING GUIDANCE PUSHES THE BULK OF TODAY'S SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS ARKLATEX BY 00Z, AND AS
WE APPROACH SUNDOWN, THE SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO BE SOLIDLY INTO
LOUISIANA, BRINGING IMPACTS TO MONROE, NATCHITOCHES, AND AREAS EAST.
THE MATURING SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO GATHER INTENSITY AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST, AND THE PRIMARY ASSOCIATED HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, BUT GIVEN WHAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR, EMBEDDED
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD LARGELY EXIT THE REGION BY
03Z, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING ITS PASSAGE OF
THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT, THUS LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
DRAMATICALLY BASED ON ITS POSITION, FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. UNDER CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION FACILITATED BY A STIFF NORTH WIND. OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF RADIATIONAL COOLING, AS NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SETTLE IN AREAWIDE AS DAWN BREAKS ON
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SP
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
AFTER A BLUSTERY END TO THE WEEKEND, A GRADUAL WARM UP IS IN STORE
EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH MORE 50S AND 60S RETURNING FOR HIGHS, WHILE
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A RELATIVELY
BRIEF RESPITE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A ZONAL PATTERN, BUT BY NEXT TUESDAY, A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SERVE TO KICK UP NEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX, LOOKING TO BEGIN
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. RECENT
LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING STEADILY INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THESE IMPACTS. THIS PERSISTENCE APPLIES AS WELL TO THE
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THE ATTENDANT POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INCOMING COLD AIRMASS NEXT WEEK, GIVING US LOWER 20S NORTH, UPPER
20S TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG I-20, AND BARELY ABOVE FREEZING
FURTHER SOUTH FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LATEST RUN. SAFE TO
SAY, MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20, WILL LIKELY SEE A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP OVERNIGHT IF THESE
TEMPERATURES PLAY OUT. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECISELY WHAT
TYPE OF WINTRY WX AND HOW FAR SOUTH IMPACTS WILL REACH, AND UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS WILL ADD CLARITY ON THAT MATTER. FOR NOW, AREAS NORTH OF
I-30 MAY SEE SNOW AND WINTRY MIX, WITH MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN, AND COLD RAIN FURTHER SOUTH.
BEAR IN MIND, MINOR SHIFTS IN THE POSITION OF THE FREEZING LINE MAY
HAVE DRAMATIC CONSEQUENCES ON THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST, SO STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IF NOT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH QUIET AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS
CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT'S MIXED
PRECIP, GUIDANCE INDICATES A REINFORCING SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR
PLUNGING LOWS INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH THE WARMEST SITES JUST SCRATCHING THE 20 DEGREE MARK.
EXACTLY HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT IT
LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S, AND SUB-
FREEZING LOWS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AS OF AROUND
00Z 2/16, MAINLY SET TO AFFECT KMLU AND KELD. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO
40 KTS AND REDUCED VSBYS TO 2 TO 4 SM ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION. ALL CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
IN THE 04-05Z TIMEFRAME WITH MVFR SETTLING IN BEHIND THE LINE OF
CONVECTION. THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE W/SW TO THE NW SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS EVENTUALLY ENDING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES/ A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
KOVACIK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 36 49 31 / 90 20 0 0
MLU 79 39 52 30 / 70 50 0 0
DEQ 61 26 45 23 / 80 10 0 0
TXK 68 32 48 27 / 90 10 0 0
ELD 77 33 49 26 / 90 60 0 0
TYR 67 31 48 30 / 70 0 0 0
GGG 69 32 49 28 / 90 0 0 0
LFK 76 35 52 33 / 70 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...23
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