268
FXUS64 KSHV 160454
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1054 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
ASIDE FROM THE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ANVIL CRAWLER
LIGHTNING STRIKE, WE ARE NEARLY DONE WITH RAINFALL FOR THIS
EVENT. THERE ARE A FEW NEW SHOWERS CROPPING UP RIGHT ON THE FRONT
OVER E TX IN THE CENTER VICINITY NOW. THESE HAVE AFFECTED A FEW
SITES WITH A BRIEF SHOWER, BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE FALLING APART
NOW. 40S CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR I-30 CORRIDOR ON GUSTY NW
WINDS. WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREAD DOWN OVER ALL OF
OUR CWA WITH THE FREEZING LINE BISECTING OUR NW AND SE CWA CORNERS.
WIND CHILL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED, SO BUNDLE UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ALL THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AND OR
MOVED OUT, WE WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE OVERNIGHT ZONES ONCE MORE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. /24/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE LATEST TIMING GUIDANCE PUSHES THE BULK OF TODAY'S SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS ARKLATEX BY 00Z, AND AS
WE APPROACH SUNDOWN, THE SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO BE SOLIDLY INTO
LOUISIANA, BRINGING IMPACTS TO MONROE, NATCHITOCHES, AND AREAS EAST.
THE MATURING SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO GATHER INTENSITY AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST, AND THE PRIMARY ASSOCIATED HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, BUT GIVEN WHAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR, EMBEDDED
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD LARGELY EXIT THE REGION BY
03Z, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING ITS PASSAGE OF
THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT, THUS LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
DRAMATICALLY BASED ON ITS POSITION, FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. UNDER CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION FACILITATED BY A STIFF NORTH WIND. OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF RADIATIONAL COOLING, AS NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SETTLE IN AREAWIDE AS DAWN BREAKS ON
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SP
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
AFTER A BLUSTERY END TO THE WEEKEND, A GRADUAL WARM UP IS IN STORE
EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH MORE 50S AND 60S RETURNING FOR HIGHS, WHILE
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A RELATIVELY
BRIEF RESPITE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A ZONAL PATTERN, BUT BY NEXT TUESDAY, A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SERVE TO KICK UP NEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX, LOOKING TO BEGIN
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. RECENT
LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING STEADILY INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THESE IMPACTS. THIS PERSISTENCE APPLIES AS WELL TO THE
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THE ATTENDANT POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INCOMING COLD AIRMASS NEXT WEEK, GIVING US LOWER 20S NORTH, UPPER
20S TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG I-20, AND BARELY ABOVE FREEZING
FURTHER SOUTH FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LATEST RUN. SAFE TO
SAY, MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20, WILL LIKELY SEE A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP OVERNIGHT IF THESE
TEMPERATURES PLAY OUT. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECISELY WHAT
TYPE OF WINTRY WX AND HOW FAR SOUTH IMPACTS WILL REACH, AND UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS WILL ADD CLARITY ON THAT MATTER. FOR NOW, AREAS NORTH OF
I-30 MAY SEE SNOW AND WINTRY MIX, WITH MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN, AND COLD RAIN FURTHER SOUTH.
BEAR IN MIND, MINOR SHIFTS IN THE POSITION OF THE FREEZING LINE MAY
HAVE DRAMATIC CONSEQUENCES ON THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST, SO STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IF NOT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH QUIET AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS
CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT'S MIXED
PRECIP, GUIDANCE INDICATES A REINFORCING SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR
PLUNGING LOWS INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH THE WARMEST SITES JUST SCRATCHING THE 20 DEGREE MARK.
EXACTLY HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT IT
LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S, AND SUB-
FREEZING LOWS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SP
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS MOVED EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS. IN ITS WAKE, MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PREVAILED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH A STIFF AND BREEZY NW WIND SUSTAINED AROUND
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, LENDING TO CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, SUSTAINED OUT OF THE NW
10-12KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS, EVENTUALLY EASING TO BELOW 10KTS
AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING WHILE SHIFTING MORE N/NE.
KOVACIK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 36 49 31 55 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 39 52 30 52 / 50 0 0 0
DEQ 26 45 23 50 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 32 48 27 53 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 33 49 26 52 / 60 0 0 0
TYR 31 48 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 32 49 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 35 52 33 60 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...23
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