327
FXUS64 KSHV 161017
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAXIMIZE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. /16/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. ALOFT,
A FAIRLY ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. THIS, ON TOP OF COLD-ENOUGH AIR THROUGH THE WEEK, COULD
ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FIRST OF
WHICH ARRIVING IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING TO MEDIUM FOR TUESDAY,
HOWEVER, THE DISTRIBUTION COULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG I-30 BY THE
TREND OF WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION (VERY LOW CONFIDENCE) AS CLOSED TROUGHING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS MOVED EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS. IN ITS WAKE, MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PREVAILED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH A STIFF AND BREEZY NW WIND SUSTAINED AROUND
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, LENDING TO CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, SUSTAINED OUT OF THE NW
10-12KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS, EVENTUALLY EASING TO BELOW 10KTS
AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING WHILE SHIFTING MORE N/NE.
KOVACIK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 48 31 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 30 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 45 23 50 33 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 47 28 53 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 49 27 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 30 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 29 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 32 60 45 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...23
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