919
FXUS64 KSHV 161118 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAXIMIZE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. /16/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. ALOFT,
A FAIRLY ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. THIS, ON TOP OF COLD-ENOUGH AIR THROUGH THE WEEK, COULD
ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FIRST OF
WHICH ARRIVING IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING TO MEDIUM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER, THE DISTRIBUTION COULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG I-30 BY THE
TREND OF WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION (VERY LOW CONFIDENCE) AS CLOSED TROUGHING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
EXTENSIVE MVFR POST-FRONTAL CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING, BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT/BECOME VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOME CU MAY LINGER THOUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR/N LA THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLETELY ERODING. SHOULD SEE SOME THIN
CIRRUS INCREASE FROM THE W THIS EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE DAY MONDAY. NW WINDS 11-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS THIS
MORNING, WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LT/VRB BY MID-EVENING. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 48 31 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 30 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 45 23 50 33 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 47 28 53 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 49 27 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 30 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 29 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 32 60 45 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page