417
FXUS64 KSHV 161754
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1154 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
DECIDED TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECASTED TRENDS TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR, HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. /20/
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAXIMIZE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. /16/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. ALOFT,
A FAIRLY ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. THIS, ON TOP OF COLD-ENOUGH AIR THROUGH THE WEEK, COULD
ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FIRST OF
WHICH ARRIVING IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING TO MEDIUM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER, THE DISTRIBUTION COULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG I-30 BY THE
TREND OF WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION (VERY LOW CONFIDENCE) AS CLOSED TROUGHING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS, MVFR SKIES CONTINUE TO SCATTER AND CLEAR
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKLATEX AIRSPACE, RETURNING TO
VFR LEVELS IF NOT SKC THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY SKY
COVER MAY RESULT FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INT FROM THE WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AFTER
SUNDOWN, ROTATING AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK AND
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, WHILE PICKING BACK UP TO
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 47 31 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 49 30 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 43 23 50 33 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 44 28 53 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 27 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 45 30 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 46 29 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 49 32 60 45 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...26
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