997
FXUS64 KSHV 162127
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
327 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OUT ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
TO 50 DEGREES TODAY. BY TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WE
SHOULD SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AREAWIDE, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY, BUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AREAWIDE. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, WITH ONLY FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES, WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS SE
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SW ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. AS THE
TROUGH GETS CLOSER THE REGION ON TUESDAY, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
WHERE THINGS WILL GET INTERESTING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHALLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON THE VERY BACK END OF THE LINGERING PRECIP BEFORE
SUNRISE WED MORNING. THERE IS STILL A TON OF THINGS TO PROCESS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS A DIFFERENCE IN A FEW DEGREES COULD
DRAMATICALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST. AS OF NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS CHANGE OVER WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TEXAS, SE
OKLAHOMA, AND ALL OF OUR SW/SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS COUNTIES. BUT
SOME PROGS HAVE THIS CHANGEOVER AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20 CORRIDOR OF
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS WILL RETURN IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT
GET OUT OF THE 40S ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE GULF DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH I DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE FORECAST, THIS SCENARIO WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE LOW DEVELOPS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND, RETURNING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS, MVFR SKIES CONTINUE TO SCATTER AND CLEAR
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKLATEX AIRSPACE, RETURNING TO
VFR LEVELS IF NOT SKC THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY SKY
COVER MAY RESULT FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INT FROM THE WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AFTER
SUNDOWN, ROTATING AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK AND
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, WHILE PICKING BACK UP TO
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 31 55 40 54 / 0 0 0 70
MLU 30 52 36 53 / 0 0 0 30
DEQ 24 50 33 40 / 0 0 10 90
TXK 28 53 37 47 / 0 0 0 80
ELD 27 51 33 48 / 0 0 0 50
TYR 30 57 44 58 / 0 0 0 70
GGG 29 56 41 55 / 0 0 0 70
LFK 32 60 45 60 / 0 0 0 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...26
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