922
FXUS64 KSHV 170226
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
826 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 819 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SOME THIN CIRRUS WAS BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES BUT THE KEY WORD IS THIN AS THIS MOISTURE SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH IF ANY IMPACT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR WEST ATTM WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS BUT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BUT OTHER THAN ACROSS
SHELTERED AREAS, TO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL GO COMPLETELY CALM AND
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD
NOT FALL ANY COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENT FORECAST. HAVING SAID
THAT, HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO ABOVE WHAT AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE COMING IN WITH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE HOURS SO DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO OUR HOURLY DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE BUT THIS DID NOT IMPACT
ACTUAL FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ALL OTHER GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY.
13
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OUT ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
TO 50 DEGREES TODAY. BY TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WE
SHOULD SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AREAWIDE, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY, BUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AREAWIDE. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, WITH ONLY FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES, WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS SE
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SW ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. AS THE
TROUGH GETS CLOSER THE REGION ON TUESDAY, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
WHERE THINGS WILL GET INTERESTING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHALLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON THE VERY BACK END OF THE LINGERING PRECIP BEFORE
SUNRISE WED MORNING. THERE IS STILL A TON OF THINGS TO PROCESS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS A DIFFERENCE IN A FEW DEGREES COULD
DRAMATICALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST. AS OF NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS CHANGE OVER WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TEXAS, SE
OKLAHOMA, AND ALL OF OUR SW/SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS COUNTIES. BUT
SOME PROGS HAVE THIS CHANGEOVER AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20 CORRIDOR OF
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS WILL RETURN IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT
GET OUT OF THE 40S ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE GULF DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH I DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE FORECAST, THIS SCENARIO WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE LOW DEVELOPS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND, RETURNING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MS
RIVER VALLEY WITH THE AXIS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR CWA THIS CYCLE.
WE WILL SEE N/NW WIND LAY DOWN SHORTLY WITH SUNSET, KEEPING 3-5KT
OVERNIGHT WHILE SHIFTING TO E/SE FOR THE NEW DAY. SE FOR MOST BY
LUNCH 5-10KT UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH FRESH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING. RAIN
TRANSISTIONS TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE ENDING WED SUNUP.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 31 55 40 54 / 0 0 0 70
MLU 30 52 36 53 / 0 0 0 30
DEQ 24 50 33 40 / 0 0 10 90
TXK 28 53 37 47 / 0 0 0 80
ELD 27 51 33 48 / 0 0 0 50
TYR 30 57 44 58 / 0 0 0 70
GGG 29 56 41 55 / 0 0 0 70
LFK 32 60 45 60 / 0 0 0 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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