852
FXUS64 KSHV 171137 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WINTRY PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION WITH MOSTLY COLD RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, REINTRODUCING ENOUGH MOIST ON-
SHORE FLOW FOR SHOWERS EARLY ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY A WINTRY
MIX NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING WINTRY PRECIP COULD REACH CLOSER TO I-20
IN THE MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS
WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S (POST-
FRONTAL), RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ALOFT, A FAIRLY ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED TROUGH PROPAGATION ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS, ON TOP OF
COLD-ENOUGH AIR THROUGH THE WEEK, COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN ITS
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE DISTRIBUTION COULD BE LIMITED BY THE
PROXIMITY OF THE 32-DEGREE ISOTHERM ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP JUST ABOVE
NORMAL (TEMPERATURE MAX/MINS ABOVE 60S/40S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 17/12Z TAF
PERIOD. AREAS OF CIRRUS CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, CONCENTRATED MAINLY N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS CIGS WILL ALSO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, WITH EXTENSIVE CU CIGS NOW DEVELOPING OVER DEEP S TX,
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NE INTO E TX BY MID TO LATE EVENING,
AND INTO SW AR/WRN LA AFTER 06Z. THESE CIGS MAY LOWER/BECOME MVFR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OVER THE W AND SW SECTIONS OF E TX,
AFFECTING LFK AFTER 09Z, AND TYR/GGG CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SPREADING FARTHER E INTO WRN LA/SW AR THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ENE WINDS 5-8KTS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL QUICKLY
VEER ESE BY MID AND LATE MORNING, AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 39 53 31 / 0 0 50 90
MLU 50 35 54 29 / 0 0 20 90
DEQ 49 32 39 23 / 0 0 90 90
TXK 52 35 45 28 / 0 0 70 90
ELD 51 32 48 23 / 0 0 40 90
TYR 56 43 56 28 / 0 0 70 60
GGG 55 40 54 30 / 0 0 60 80
LFK 59 44 59 34 / 0 0 60 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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