478
FXUS64 KSHV 171831
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING AREAWIDE UNDER LIGHT E/SE WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
OBSERVED TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING ARE ON PAR WITH ALL FORECAST
ELEMENTS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
WILL BE ADDRESSING/UPDATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
/19/
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WINTRY PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION WITH MOSTLY COLD RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, REINTRODUCING ENOUGH MOIST ON-
SHORE FLOW FOR SHOWERS EARLY ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY A WINTRY
MIX NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING WINTRY PRECIP COULD REACH CLOSER TO I-20
IN THE MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS
WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S (POST-
FRONTAL), RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ALOFT, A FAIRLY ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED TROUGH PROPAGATION ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS, ON TOP OF
COLD-ENOUGH AIR THROUGH THE WEEK, COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN ITS
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE DISTRIBUTION COULD BE LIMITED BY THE
PROXIMITY OF THE 32-DEGREE ISOTHERM ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP JUST ABOVE
NORMAL (TEMPERATURE MAX/MINS ABOVE 60S/40S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE AIRSPACE WIDE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A VAST
PRESENTATION OF SKC. THIS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DRIFTING IN FROM
THE WEST, CLOSER TO SUNSET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 00Z, AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY LEADING TO BKN/OVC CEILINGS
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. FORCING ALOFT, AND VICINITY TO A DEVELOPING
SFC TROUGH ACROSS TX WILL SUPPORT LIGHT RA ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RA, ESPECIALLY MODERATE RA, PREVAILING
JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TSRA, LOOKS TO BE DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 39 53 31 41 / 0 50 90 0
MLU 35 54 29 41 / 0 20 90 0
DEQ 32 39 23 35 / 0 90 90 0
TXK 35 45 28 39 / 0 70 90 0
ELD 32 48 23 38 / 0 40 90 0
TYR 43 56 28 38 / 0 70 60 0
GGG 40 54 30 40 / 0 60 80 0
LFK 44 59 34 43 / 0 60 80 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...53
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