923
FXUS64 KSHV 180452
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1052 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BUT
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH, NORTHEAST AND EAST LIKELY SEEING
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THEY WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, FORECAST TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE TOO
COOL ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF WHERE CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
INTRUDE TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. DID SLOW THE RATE OF COOLING
ACROSS THESE AREAS IN OUR HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES BUT THE
CHANGE DID NOT CONSTITUTE A CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS ALSO SOME HINT OF ISENTROPIC FORCING OCCURRING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WHILE THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE
TX, DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE SUNRISE WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND
NOT MEASURABLE.
ALL OTHER GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES
NECESSARY.
13
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS YIELDED A NICE
AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY, BUT MAJOR CHANGES ARE JUST ON THE HORIZON
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. WE'RE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE
FIRST SIGNS OF THIS PENDING CHANGE AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN QUICKLY
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TX
AND SOUTHERN OK WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR NOW. AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CLOUDS WILL EXPAND
FARTHER EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND THICKEN UP IN THE PROCESS AS
MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN THESE CLOUDS,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING NE TO THE LOWER 40S IN SW ZONES.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY, ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST WITH MORE
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT NEAR OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORTHERNMOST WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR STEADY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
OUACHITAS LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC AIR MASS IN THESE NORTHERNMOST LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS EARLY AS THE AFTERNOON IN
IN NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT AREAS IN SW
ARKANSAS.
AS THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SEEP SOUTHWARD ALONG AND
NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUIT ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM
EXTREME NE TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE AR/LA STATE LINE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THESE AREAS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATION WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SOME SLEET MIXING IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN
ALONG AND POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH LA
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE MORE
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE BETWEEN A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE ONSET OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR AT LEAST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH FORTHCOMING
UPDATES.
/19/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNING TO THE
BRUTALLY COLD AIR SETTLING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND CHILLS MUCH LOWER GIVEN THE STRONG AND GUSTY
N/NE WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S AREAWIDE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
RISING MUCH ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT POSSIBLY OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN NORTHERN ZONES
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS QUITE LOW
GIVEN A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BY EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. FOR NOW, HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
SUNDAY.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, COLD AIR MASS MOVG E AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE DOME WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS NOW SPREADING OVER
E TX. HRRR SHOWS -RA DVLPG BETWEEN 12-15Z OVER E TX TERMINALS,
AND INTO KTXK/KSHV 16-20Z. THE LATE AFTN OVERRUNS WITH ISOLD TS
AT OUR TX/LA WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR. FROPA GEARS UP OVER
OK/AR WITH NE WINDS BACK TO N 03-09Z AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS
ACROSS I-20. -RA/+RA, BUT MIX -FZRA/IP WHILE ENDING. MINOR
IMPACTS TO ELEVATED STRUCTURES, BUT NOT AS LIKELY ON GROUND. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 39 50 32 40 / 10 60 90 0
MLU 35 54 30 38 / 0 20 90 0
DEQ 33 37 25 35 / 10 90 90 0
TXK 36 41 28 39 / 10 70 90 0
ELD 32 46 24 37 / 0 30 90 0
TYR 44 53 30 37 / 10 80 60 0
GGG 41 52 31 40 / 10 70 80 0
LFK 44 59 36 42 / 10 70 80 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24
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