681
FXUS64 KSHV 182041
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ARK-LA-TX BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, LEADING US TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS. FROM THE INITIAL ISSUANCE, WE HAVE
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY AREA WESTWARD TO INCLUDE CAMP, TITUS, AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN TEXAS. WE HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE TIME THE
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE REALM OF
SEVERAL HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH, IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE ON BRIDGES,
OVERPASSES, TREES, AND POWERLINES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY REGIONWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WIND CHILL. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD
DROP DOWN TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-20
WILL HAVE VALUES IN THE LOW-MID TEENS. THE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
BY A FUTURE SHIFT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH TONIGHT'S IMPACTS. /57/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOMING
MORE SEASONAL AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BRING MORE
CLARITY.
SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK,
WITH REGIONAL HIGHS LOOKING TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. /57/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SPREAD OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AS DENSE
OVC REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. ENERGY ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TSRA, WITH LFK PRESENTING THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, ELECTED TO
WORK IN SHRA WITH VCTS TO BACK UP ANY ISOLATED TSRA NEAR THE
TERMINALS. IFR AND EVEN LIFR WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN RATES, DUE TO FALLING VSBY. OVERNIGHT, A
COLD AIRMASS SPILLING SOUTH WILL TRANSITION RA TO FZRA WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF PL. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LA I-20 TERMINALS AND NORTH INTO SW AR. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE FZ WORDING FOR SHV AND MLU. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACKAGE. BY MID
MORNING, PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINALS, THOUGH LOW OVC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. BY THE AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT OF THE CEILINGS.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 28 39 20 37 / 90 0 0 0
MLU 27 37 19 35 / 90 0 0 0
DEQ 21 33 11 34 / 90 0 0 0
TXK 24 37 15 35 / 80 0 0 0
ELD 20 36 14 34 / 90 0 0 0
TYR 26 35 17 36 / 60 0 0 0
GGG 28 37 18 38 / 80 0 0 0
LFK 32 41 23 41 / 90 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-019-021.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-126.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...53
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