729
FXUS64 KSHV 190352
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE OUR REGION BUT THE
OUACHITAS ARE DOING ITS TYPICAL THING, TRYING TO BLOCK THE
SUBFREEZING AIRMASS FROM MOVING SOUTHWARD BUT IT'S LOSING ON IT'S
EASTERN FLANK AS THE FREEZING LINE AS OF 03Z WAS ORIENTED NEAR AN
EL DORADO, MAGNOLIA TO NORTH OF DEQUEEN ARKANSAS LINE ONTO NEAR
PARIS, SULPHUR SPRINGS AND CORSICANA TEXAS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE DRYING TREND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST IS WAY
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND IS EVEN OUTPACING THE HIGHRES PROGS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR BEFORE DRYSLOTTING ULTIMATELY WINS OUT.
FOR THE UPDATE, HAVE REDRAWN POPS AND RECONFIGURED PRECIP TYPE
NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND HAVE DONE THE SAME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CORRIDOR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. STILL THINK THE FREEZING LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO MORE OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE
ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA BEFORE WE LOSE ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AFTER SUNRISE WED MORNING. LIKEWISE,
WILL SEE A SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH TO THIS FREEZING LINE ACROSS MORE OF
NE TX OVERNIGHT BUT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND PUSH EAST, THUS, DID NOT SEE THE REASON TO ADD ANY MORE
COUNTIES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
FCST MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD AND HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BUT DID SLOW THE TEMPERATURE FALLING
TREND SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WEST AND SPED IT UP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES.
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT...13.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ARK-LA-TX BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, LEADING US TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS. FROM THE INITIAL ISSUANCE, WE HAVE
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY AREA WESTWARD TO INCLUDE CAMP, TITUS, AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN TEXAS. WE HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE TIME THE
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE REALM OF
SEVERAL HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH, IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE ON BRIDGES,
OVERPASSES, TREES, AND POWERLINES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY REGION WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WIND CHILL. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD
DROP DOWN TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-20
WILL HAVE VALUES IN THE LOW-MID TEENS. THE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
BY A FUTURE SHIFT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH TONIGHT'S IMPACTS. /57/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOMING
MORE SEASONAL AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BRING MORE
CLARITY.
SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK,
WITH REGIONAL HIGHS LOOKING TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. /57/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, WINTER WX ADV NOW & UNTIL 16Z WITH
KTXK, KELD LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHT ICING WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ALONG I-20 IN LA. THE ARCTIC FROPA IS UNDERWAY WITH
LOWERING DEW POINTS BACKDOORING IN ON NE10-20KT WINDS. ICING
CURRENTLY IN KLZK METRO, ARRIVING HERE MID EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FZRAPL MAY MIX SN TO END AS COLDER
AIR DEEPENS ALOFT. IFR TO MVFR WILL BE ABOUT THE BEST AND SOME
LIFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BLUE SKIES AGAIN MIDWEEK. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST WED FEB 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 28 39 20 37 / 90 0 0 0
MLU 27 37 19 35 / 90 0 0 0
DEQ 21 33 11 34 / 30 0 0 0
TXK 24 37 15 35 / 50 0 0 0
ELD 20 36 14 34 / 90 0 0 0
TYR 26 35 17 36 / 70 0 0 0
GGG 28 37 18 38 / 80 0 0 0
LFK 32 41 23 41 / 90 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
012>014-019-021.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-126.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...24
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