954
FXUS64 KSHV 191810
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1210 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING A BAND OF SNOW MOVING SOUTH FROM THE LA/AR
BOARDER ALONG I-49, WHICH HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY ON RADAR OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. TODAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED,
SO UPDATED MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /57/
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF SW /SCNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
NCNTRL LA WHERE A GLAZING OF ICE WERE NOTED, MUCH OF THE REGION DODGED
A BULLET AS THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WERE A BIT SLOWER THAN PROGGED TO
BACKDOOR SW THROUGH SW AR INTO PORTIONS OF N LA, WITH DAMMING OF THE
OUACHITAS ALSO SLOWING THE SWD OOZE OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS
NE TX, WHERE THE RAINS CLEARED OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING. HAD BEEN
SEEING SOME PATCHY -SN/-FZDZ ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP AREA OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX, BUT THIS TOO HAS DRIED UP OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS PER THE LATEST SFC OBS AND TXDOT TRAFFIC CAMS, WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR ENTRAINING E AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING E ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE -RA AREA SOON EXITING
ECNTRL LA WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING, AND THE FACT THAT
UPSTREAMS OBS SHOW THAT ANY -SN/-FZDZ HAS DIMINISHED, WILL BE
CANCELING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION WITH THE COMPLETE DEPARTURE OF THE PRECIP. OTHERWISE, THE
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S INTO THE NW GULF AND INTO SE LA, BUT GIVEN
THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, THE TRUE ARCTIC
AIR WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH
THE POST-FRONTAL LOW CIGS LIKELY SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY, THUS
LIMITING ANY WARMUP WE WILL SEE. IN FACT, HAVE UNDERCUT NBM TEMPS
BY SOME 3-5 DEGREES TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LACK
OF INSOLATION, WITH PORTIONS OF ECNTRL TX/SE OK/SW AR LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. ELSEWHERE, MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR THIS
MORNING BEFORE COOLING, ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW RECOVERY MAY BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT WE WILL LOSE THE LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU
COMPLETELY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND EVEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS ARCTIC SFC RIDGING BUILDS S
INTO THE REGION. EVENSO, N WINDS AROUND 10KTS COUPLED WITH THE
WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPS/DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FALLING TO NEAR 0/LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEEN WIND
CHILLS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS E TX/N LA. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY AREAWIDE FROM 03Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS
THEY SLOWLY CLIMB TO NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING. ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS THAT
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT N OF I-20, VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG, BUT WILL STILL
GENERATE WIND CHILLS WITHIN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20
DEGREES.
15
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC SFC RIDGING WILL SHIFT E OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
FRIDAY AND WEAKEN, WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND COMMENCING
AREAWIDE. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL, UPPER TROUGHING NOW
EVIDENT THIS MORNING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST OFF THE PAC
NW COAST WILL TRANSLATE SE AS IT ENTERS KS/OK FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE SHIFTING E THROUGH THE OZARKS AND THE MID-SOUTH REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE STILL LOOKS TO
OCCUR OVER E TX/N LA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS N TX
SATURDAY NIGHT SET TO PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED -SHRA
MAINLY OVER E TX/N LA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FORTUNATELY, SFC
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUING IT TREND IN MODERATING OVERNIGHT MINS, WITH ANY
REMAINING -SHRA CLEARING THESE AREAS TO THE S SUNDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS 2ND TROUGH, WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK UNDER DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL (MORE SPRINGLIKE) TEMPS RETURNING
MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN FRONTAL TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC FORCING EXISTS SUCH THAT ANY RETURN OF POPS IS
QUESTIONABLE ATTM.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY RECOVERING AS MANY TERMINALS HAVE
SWITCHED OVER FROM IFR TO MVFR WITHIN THE LAST HOUR SO. THAT BEING
SAID, DENSE OVC REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MANY, AND WILL DO SO THROUGH
SUNSET. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
MORNING, BUT HAVE SINCE DRIED OUT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIFTING BASES AND SCATTERING OF THE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT,
INTO THURSDAY AM. FOR NOW, AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS,
ANTICIPATING A MIX OF FEW/SKC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE HOWEVER, WIND ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED 10-15KT WINDS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 20KT. THE BACK HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE WIND GRADUALLY
RELAX.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 20 36 21 42 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 20 34 19 41 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 11 34 17 39 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 15 34 19 40 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 13 34 16 40 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 17 36 22 40 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 18 36 20 41 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 24 41 22 42 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
165>167.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...53
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