687
FXUS64 KSHV 192015 AAC
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
CLEARING CLOUD COVER OVER SE OK AND NE TX IS PRESENT ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CLEARING WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT SKIES WILL NOT BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CONTINUING GUSTY
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM THURSDAY. WIND CHILLS
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR-ZERO UP NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH OF I-20.
THURSDAY WILL BE GENERALLY WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
THURSDAY NIGHT, DESPITE THE CALMER WINDS EXPECTED. REGIONAL WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND STILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS
ADVISORY WILL BE LOOKED INTO BY A FUTURE SHIFT. /57/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE SEASONAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FROM LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION, WITH THE INITIAL THOUGHT BEING
THAT RAIN WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN SW AR, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP IF THE RAINFALL MOVES THAT FAR
NORTHEAST. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL BE FOCUSED ON NARROWING DOWN THE
LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT CHANCE OF WINTER
PRECIP OCCURING. REGUARDLESS, RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY
EVENING, BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. /57/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY RECOVERING AS MANY TERMINALS HAVE
SWITCHED OVER FROM IFR TO MVFR WITHIN THE LAST HOUR SO. THAT BEING
SAID, DENSE OVC REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MANY, AND WILL DO SO THROUGH
SUNSET. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
MORNING, BUT HAVE SINCE DRIED OUT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIFTING BASES AND SCATTERING OF THE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT,
INTO THURSDAY AM. FOR NOW, AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS,
ANTICIPATING A MIX OF FEW/SKC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE HOWEVER, WIND ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED 10-15KT WINDS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 20KT. THE BACK HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE WIND GRADUALLY
RELAX.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FROM LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION, WITH THE INITIAL THOUGHT BEING
THAT RAIN WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN SW AR, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP IF THE RAINFALL MOVES THAT FAR
NORTHEAST. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL BE FOCUSED ON NARROWING DOWN THE
LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT CHANCE OF WINTER
PRECIP OCCURING. REGUARDLESS, RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY
EVENING, BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 20 37 21 40 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 19 34 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 12 35 18 38 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 16 36 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 13 34 17 39 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 17 37 23 39 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 18 38 21 40 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 22 41 24 40 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
165>167.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...53
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