269
FXUS64 KSHV 200455
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1055 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
REGIONAL NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS CHANNEL SHOWING THE CLOUD CLEARING
LINE HAS NOW SUNK SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF EXTREME
NE TX AND NC LA WHERE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR SKIES HAVE
CLEARED. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO 7 DEGREE SPREAD DEPENDING ON IF YOU
ARE UNDER THE CLOUD COVER OR NOT FOR THE MOST PART. LIKEWISE,
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 20 MPH IN SOME SPOTS SO THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MIXED BUT 03Z TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS SE OK WITH LOWER 20S ACROSS THOSE AREAS WITHOUT
CLOUD COVER AND MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
WITH CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE UPDATE, SPED UP THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS SOMEWHAT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO NEAR SUNRISE. HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE PRETTY GOOD OVERALL SO DID NOT HAVE TO
MAKE ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT...13.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
CLEARING CLOUD COVER OVER SE OK AND NE TX IS PRESENT ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CLEARING WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT SKIES WILL NOT BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CONTINUING GUSTY
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM THURSDAY. WIND CHILLS
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR-ZERO UP NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH OF I-20.
THURSDAY WILL BE GENERALLY WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
THURSDAY NIGHT, DESPITE THE CALMER WINDS EXPECTED. REGIONAL WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND STILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS
ADVISORY WILL BE LOOKED INTO BY A FUTURE SHIFT. /57/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE SEASONAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FROM LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION, WITH THE INITIAL THOUGHT BEING
THAT RAIN WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN SW AR, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP IF THE RAINFALL MOVES THAT FAR
NORTHEAST. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL BE FOCUSED ON NARROWING DOWN THE
LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT CHANCE OF WINTER
PRECIP OCCURRING. REGARDLESS, RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY
EVENING, BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. /57/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
FOR THE 20/06Z TAFS, THE STUBBORN OVC CLOUD DECK HAS CONTINUED TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARDS AS EXPECTED, NOW GIVING WAY TO SCT AND BKN SKIES
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH FURTHER CLEARING IN THE HOURS AHEAD,
CONTINUING FOR AIRSPACE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BY 20/12Z, SCT
HIGH CLOUDS TO SKC CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE, WITH VFR
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LIGHTER
AND NORTHEASTERLY INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 20 37 21 40 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 19 34 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 12 35 18 38 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 16 36 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 13 34 17 39 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 17 37 23 39 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 18 38 21 40 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 22 41 24 40 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...26
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