171
FXUS64 KSHV 201145
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
BRRRR...IT'S COLD OUTSIDE! SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ENCOMPASS
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 THIS MORNING AS OF 09Z, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS TO SPILL
FARTHER S INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA BY DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS FALL WITH THE DECREASE IN THE STRATOCU
CIGS. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ARCTIC SFC RIDGING
OVER NE/KS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BUILD SE INTO THE OZARKS LATE
TONIGHT AND THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY. GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION
HAS WEAKENED, AND SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE DIMINISHING
LOW CIGS, TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, NE WINDS AROUND 10KTS TODAY WILL RESULT
IN EVEN COLDER APPARENT T'S, WITH THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 16Z.
SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING ELEVATED CIGS FROM THE W THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WOULD HELP TO OFFSET
RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. THUS, TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS WHAT
HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR, WITH WEAKER WINDS RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES NOT
MUCH LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPS. HOWEVER, AREAS FARTHER S
FROM FAR SRN AR INTO N LA/I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX SHOULD SEE TEMPS
FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES, WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS, RESULTING IN EVEN LOWER WIND CHILLS. THUS, ANOTHER
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM 03Z THIS
EVENING TO 16Z FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODERATION IN TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT CU CIGS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF DEEP E TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO MUCH OF E TX/N LA/POSSIBLY SRN AR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL TRAVERSE E THROUGH KS/OK
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW, AND THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED FARTHER N AWAY FROM THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AXIS, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING CIGS WILL
INHIBIT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY ALONG/S OF I-20.
THUS, QUITE A RANGE IN MIN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS N TO NEAR 30/LOWER 30S SOUTH. GIVEN THESE
MODERATING TEMPS, NO ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES APPEAR NEEDED
BEYOND TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE WARMING TREND TRANSLATES INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THANK YOU WFO'S FWD/LZK FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
15
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
WHILE THE CU CIGS SHOULD LINGER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA, THESE SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TO THE N. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THEY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL ENTER W TX. THE MOISTURE PROFILE
REMAINS PROGGED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH, WITH
GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED
-SHRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THOUGH AS TO THE NRN EXTENT OF
THIS PRECIPITATION, GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
REMAIN FARTHER S WITH THE TROUGH POSITION THAT THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. IF THE FARTHER N GEFS/GFS SOLUTIONS VERIFY, THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SFC TEMPS
CAN FALL TO/BELOW FREEZING, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE
TX/SE OK/SW AR. THUS, LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM IN RESPONSE
TO THE MIXING OF THE WARMER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC VIA THE RAIN
PROCESSES. THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM W TO E
SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH, WITH A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
COMMENCING BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
MUCH WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE SECOND
TROUGH'S DEPARTURE BY MONDAY, WITH A DURATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, FORCING A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPS BY THAT TIME. UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THOUGH AS TO
WHETHER ANOTHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE ESTABLISHED AHEAD
OF THIS NEXT FROPA, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IF ANY) LOOK TO BE LIGHT
ATTM.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
FOR 20/12Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD ONCE THE MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY LIFTS/ERODES BY
20/18Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WANE TO NEAR 5 KTS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 37 20 41 30 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 34 19 39 26 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 33 18 39 19 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 34 20 39 24 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 33 16 39 21 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 35 22 39 30 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 37 20 41 29 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 40 22 42 33 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR ARZ071>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16
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