251
FXUS64 KSHV 202021
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
221 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
LIGHT CIRRUS CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. FOR AREAS IN SW AR AND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL REACH
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY, DESPITE THE CALMER WIND CONDITIONS
PRESENT. IN ADDITION, INCOMING CLOUD COVER ALONG OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP THESE AREAS OUT
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE COLD, BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD TO
COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY UPSTREAM OF THE NEXT UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER WILL CREATE A WIDER RANGE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH NORTHERN ZONES DROPPING TO THE LOW 20S AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ONLY REACHING THE LOW 30S. /57/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
RAIN RETURNS TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE, BUT RAIN WILL GENERALLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF SE OK, SW
AR, AND CENTRAL LA AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. SO IF PRECIP IS
ABLE TO MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION, IT IS LIKELY THAT WINTRY
PRECIP WILL FALL IN THESE COOLER AREAS WITH RAIN FALLING
EVERYWHERE ELSE. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, IMPACTS WILL LIKELY
BE MINOR. FURTHER CLARITY ON THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ANY
RESULTING IMPACTS WILL COME WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WE WILL BE UNDER A WARM
AND DRY REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
/57/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CARRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE THE
THEME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CAN BE NOTICED IN THE ETX
TERMINAL TAFS AS BKN/OVC AT OR BELOW 5KFT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH.
ASIDE FROM THIS, TERMINAL WIND HAS BEEN BREEZY THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS SHOULD SETTLE SOME THIS EVENING,
TRENDING E-NE BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 20 41 30 51 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 19 39 26 49 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 18 39 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 20 39 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 16 39 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 22 39 30 51 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 20 41 29 51 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 22 42 33 49 / 0 0 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR ARZ071>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...53
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