987
FXUS64 KSHV 210454
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1054 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 744 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EAST OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. NEARLY ALL AREAS
ARE ALREADY DOWN TO, OR BELOW, FREEZING ALREADY THIS EVENING AS
OUR REGION REMAINS STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN. EXPECT ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL PUT DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES RECORDS IN
JEOPARDY FOR TOMORROW IN QUITE A FEW AREAS. THE INHERITED FORECAST
IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED AROUND
A DEGREE IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT SUBTLY
INCREASING HIGHER LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A
GREAT IMPEDIMENT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO MODERATE UPWARD SOME TOMORROW, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
LARGELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
GIVEN THE ABNORMAL COLD, ALL RESIDENTS OF THE REGION NEED TO STILL
THINK ABOUT PROTECTING THE FOUR PS TONIGHT: PEOPLE, PLANTS, PIPES,
AND PETS. /50/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
LIGHT CIRRUS CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. FOR AREAS IN SW AR AND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL REACH
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY, DESPITE THE CALMER WIND CONDITIONS
PRESENT. IN ADDITION, INCOMING CLOUD COVER ALONG OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP THESE AREAS OUT
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE COLD, BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD TO
COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY UPSTREAM OF THE NEXT UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER WILL CREATE A WIDER RANGE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH NORTHERN ZONES DROPPING TO THE LOW 20S AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ONLY REACHING THE LOW 30S. /57/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
RAIN RETURNS TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE, BUT RAIN WILL GENERALLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF SE OK, SW
AR, AND CENTRAL LA AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. SO IF PRECIP IS
ABLE TO MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION, IT IS LIKELY THAT WINTRY
PRECIP WILL FALL IN THESE COOLER AREAS WITH RAIN FALLING
EVERYWHERE ELSE. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, IMPACTS WILL LIKELY
BE MINOR. FURTHER CLARITY ON THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ANY
RESULTING IMPACTS WILL COME WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WE WILL BE UNDER A WARM
AND DRY REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
/57/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LOOKING TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT. A FEW SCT HIGH CLOUDS
ARE TREKKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AIRSPACE, BUT WILL
NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR CATEGORY CHANGES. NEAR OR
AFTER 21/12Z, LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST, BRINGING IMPACTS FIRST TO KLFK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, MAINTAINING MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGHOUT, WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF AREA AIRSPACE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 20 42 30 51 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 20 40 28 48 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 17 39 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 20 40 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 17 40 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 21 40 30 50 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 20 41 29 51 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 23 41 34 49 / 0 0 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ARZ071>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...26
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