705
FXUS64 KSHV 211839
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1239 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE. THERE HAS BEEN MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THAN WHAT WAS REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WE INCREASED THE COVERAGE ON THE SKY GRIDS,
WHICH ALONG WITH RECENT TRENDS, LEAD US TO ALSO LOWER TODAY'S MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. /57/
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE, UNCHANGED, ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTION OF SOUTH ARKANSAS
THROUGH 10 AM. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING, TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, INCREASED CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF I-20 WILL ALLOW
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER, UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS,
NORTHEAST TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
20S AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS, WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE. THUS NO COLD HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ENDING AREAWIDE. ADDITIONALLY, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE,
COULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF TO BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TO NORTH LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL ADVECT COLD AIR BACK ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THAT RETREATING
PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD STAY AHEAD OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT, MITIGATING ANY MENTIONABLE WINTRY
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS I-20 AND NEAR
40 ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK,
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AREAWIDE. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
FRIDAY MORNING. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
DENSE OVC IS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
VFR REMAINS IN PLACE. CEILINGS HAVE HELD AROUND 5-6KFT, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MANY TERMINALS AT OR JUST BELOW 3KFT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT EVEN THOUGH CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
VSBYS WILL REMAIN HIGH. THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF THE PERIOD,
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT SIGNS DO POINT TOWARDS IT NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 18Z. ELECTED TO ADD VCSH TO LFK AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL
PRIOR TO HIGHER CHANCES AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD EXPIRES.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 30 52 36 57 / 0 10 20 30
MLU 28 50 32 55 / 0 10 10 30
DEQ 21 48 27 57 / 0 0 10 10
TXK 26 51 33 58 / 0 0 10 10
ELD 23 50 28 57 / 0 0 10 20
TYR 30 51 38 58 / 0 10 30 20
GGG 29 52 36 58 / 0 10 30 20
LFK 34 50 39 56 / 0 20 60 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53
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