709
FXUS64 KSHV 212035
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
235 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND KEEP TONIGHT'S LOWS UP. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT, MINIMIZING THE NEED FOR ANY COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THAT, COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE PROGRESSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY
SATURDAY, WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE HIGH 40S OR LOW 50S. THE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN.
THE RAIN WILL COME AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARM, MOIST AIR
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS SUCH, THE CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP
HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. /57/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
RAIN WILL STICK AROUND BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT FOLLOWS WILL BEGIN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS OF LOW
TO MID 70S BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES TO BETTER
REFLECT SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE WARMING BACK UP ON FRIDAY. /57/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
DENSE OVC IS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
VFR REMAINS IN PLACE. CEILINGS HAVE HELD AROUND 5-6KFT, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MANY TERMINALS AT OR JUST BELOW 3KFT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT EVEN THOUGH CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
VSBYS WILL REMAIN HIGH. THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF THE PERIOD,
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT SIGNS DO POINT TOWARDS IT NEAR OR JUST
AFTER 18Z. ELECTED TO ADD VCSH TO LFK AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL
PRIOR TO HIGHER CHANCES AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD EXPIRES.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 31 51 36 53 / 0 0 30 40
MLU 29 50 32 50 / 0 0 10 30
DEQ 20 48 26 58 / 0 0 10 10
TXK 26 50 30 57 / 0 0 10 10
ELD 24 50 28 55 / 0 0 10 20
TYR 29 50 36 57 / 0 0 40 20
GGG 28 51 35 55 / 0 0 40 30
LFK 32 48 39 53 / 0 20 70 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...53
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