237
FXUS64 KSHV 220751
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
151 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
HAS ALLOWED FOR WEAK ECHOES TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE TEENS, EVAPORATION HAS PREVENTED PRECIP
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LATER TODAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO SATURATE IN THE LOWER-LEVELS.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL
SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL ALLOW FOR FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20 OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST TEXAS, AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS, THE CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE
HIGHEST POP VALUES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE.
ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA WITH TEMPERATUES FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S. /05/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
ON MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES
EAST INTO FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE ARKLATEX
CONTRIBUTING TO A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND INTO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING TO AVERAGE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
ON THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE, BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
FOR THE 22/06Z TAFS, MVFR TO LOWER VFR OVC CLOUD DECKS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, GRADUALLY RECEDING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, MAKING WAY FOR BKN/SCT VFR SKIES IN THEIR
WAKE. MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SHOWERS RETURN TO
DEEP EAST TEXAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
RESUMING A NORTHERLY ORIENTATION WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SPEEDS LESS
THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH LIMITED GUSTS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 36 53 38 / 0 20 40 0
MLU 51 34 49 35 / 10 20 40 0
DEQ 49 28 57 33 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 50 32 56 37 / 0 10 20 0
ELD 51 30 54 33 / 0 10 20 0
TYR 50 37 56 40 / 0 30 20 0
GGG 51 36 54 37 / 0 30 40 0
LFK 48 40 53 40 / 30 70 60 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...26
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