700
FXUS64 KSHV 221708
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS, WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO BE MADE FOR OUR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THINGS WERE TRENDING FAIRLY WELL. OTHERWISE, WE WILL
JUST BE WATCHING THE LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
TODAY THAT COULD PUSH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. /33/
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
HAS ALLOWED FOR WEAK ECHOES TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE TEENS, EVAPORATION HAS PREVENTED PRECIP
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LATER TODAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO SATURATE IN THE LOWER-LEVELS.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL
SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL ALLOW FOR FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20 OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST TEXAS, AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS, THE CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE
HIGHEST POP VALUES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE.
ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA WITH TEMPERATUES FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S. /05/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
ON MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES
EAST INTO FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE ARKLATEX
CONTRIBUTING TO A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND INTO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING TO AVERAGE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
ON THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE, BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
GENERAL OVC CURRENTLY PREVAILS JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 TERMINALS,
DOWN TO LFK. LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ARE PRESENT ON RADAR, BUT
EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THAT NOT ALL OF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND. FOR
NOW, SUPPORTING VCSH FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF I-20. TO THE NORTH,
SKC, WITH OCCASIONAL PASSING CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST. INTO THE
EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS WILL RETREAT BACK NORTH,
PREVAILING OVC FOR MOST TERMINALS, ALONG WITH SHRA. THIS SHOULD
PREVAIL, AND BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, THROUGH THE MID
TO END STAGES OF THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 2KFT FOR
MOST TERMINALS AS WE APPROACH 18Z SUNDAY.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 36 53 38 68 / 20 40 0 0
MLU 34 49 35 67 / 20 40 0 0
DEQ 28 57 33 67 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 32 56 37 69 / 10 20 0 0
ELD 30 54 33 68 / 10 20 0 0
TYR 37 56 40 70 / 30 20 0 0
GGG 36 54 37 69 / 30 40 0 0
LFK 40 53 40 68 / 70 60 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53
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