230
FXUS64 KSHV 222003
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
203 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND THESE SHOWERS FURTHER NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. OVERCAST SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKEWISE
MOVE, KEEPING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WARM OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WHILE
THE UNCOVERED NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FALLS JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN WILL REACH THE I-30 CORRIDOR BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION COVERED BY RAIN,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CLEARER SKIES IN SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. THIS
RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE MOVING
EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. /57/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERAL WARMING STARTING ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE HIGH 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTS THE RETURN OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT,
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE LA/AR BORDER REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
THE 70S FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN, ENJOY A MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF BEAUTIFUL WEATHER! /57/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
GENERAL OVC CURRENTLY PREVAILS JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 TERMINALS,
DOWN TO LFK. LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ARE PRESENT ON RADAR, BUT
EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THAT NOT ALL OF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND. FOR
NOW, SUPPORTING VCSH FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF I-20. TO THE NORTH,
SKC, WITH OCCASIONAL PASSING CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST. INTO THE
EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS WILL RETREAT BACK NORTH,
PREVAILING OVC FOR MOST TERMINALS, ALONG WITH SHRA. THIS SHOULD
PREVAIL, AND BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, THROUGH THE MID
TO END STAGES OF THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 2KFT FOR
MOST TERMINALS AS WE APPROACH 18Z SUNDAY.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 38 51 36 67 / 30 40 0 0
MLU 36 48 35 63 / 20 50 0 0
DEQ 27 57 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 32 57 35 67 / 10 20 0 0
ELD 29 53 31 65 / 10 30 0 0
TYR 39 57 37 68 / 20 20 0 0
GGG 37 54 34 68 / 30 30 0 0
LFK 39 52 38 67 / 60 50 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...53
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