320
FXUS64 KSHV 261819
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
119 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS TOLEDO BEND THIS
MORNING, WHILE JUST TO THE NORTH, ELEVATED BOUNDARY SUPPORTED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ORIENTED IN A LINE FROM
RED RIVER COUNTY, TX EAST TO OUACHITA PARISH, LA. MORNING CAMS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ARW SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
AT THIS TIME, WITH THE HRRR SOLUTIONS NOT FAR BEHIND. TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST ACROSS THE I-30
CORRIDOR. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, WARMING IS ONGOING WITH MANY
PUSHING THE LOW AND MID 70'S. ELECTED TO DECREASE SOME OF THE
MAXT'S ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH,
WHERE A WARM AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ORIENTATION OF
THE PRECIP AND RECENT CAMS SOLUTIONS.
KNAPP
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET
TODAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT, MODERATING
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS TOMORROW TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. /16/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST. BY TOMORROW IT WILL
DISPLACE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW SOME TROUGHING TO
UNDERCUT IT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS. THIS TROUGHING WILL DRIVE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT APPRECIABLE BREAK FROM ACTIVITY ARRIVES ON MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH
(WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY) PASSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. ACCOUNTING FOR THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION,
THE MEAN OF TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
RESPECTIVELY. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
FOR THE 26/18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS TO MONROE LOUISIANA. DECIDED TO GO
WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AT ALL SITES. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KLFK,
WHERE RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA, AND KMLU, WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAF SITE. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LEAVING HIGH CIGS OVERNIGHT. BUT,
RAPID REFRESH HAS SOME MVFR CIGS COMING INTO OUR EAST TEXAS ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 60 80 63 / 30 0 10 30
MLU 74 58 82 63 / 70 0 0 10
DEQ 72 53 79 57 / 40 10 10 40
TXK 71 58 80 62 / 60 10 10 30
ELD 71 54 82 60 / 60 0 0 10
TYR 80 61 76 63 / 20 0 30 60
GGG 79 59 78 61 / 20 0 20 50
LFK 85 61 76 62 / 10 0 20 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...20
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