607
FXUS64 KSHV 270242
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
942 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS VERSUS THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THINGS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING WELL. MADE SOME VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE THE MOST OUT
OF TOLERANCE. OTHERWISE, I AM STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA, BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THIS AREA DON'T INDICATE ANYTHING IS
HITTING THE GROUND. /33/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
LINGERING BETWEEN I-20 AND I-30. PRECIP IS MOVING SOUTH, BUT AT A
RATHER SLOW PACE. WHETHER OR NOT THE PRECIP REACHES ALL OF I-20
IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT NOT RULING OUT A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO ALONG THE CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES AS THE REFLECTIVITY FADES INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE REFLECTIVITY,
AREAS FROM RUSTON TO MONROE, LA HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO SEE
THE RAIN, WHILE I-20 COMMUNITIES TO THE WEST REMAIN ON THE DRIER
SIDE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH A DRIER OVERNIGHT PREVAILING. THURSDAY, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF, SHOULD TREND ON THE QUIET SIDE, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 80'S ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY. SUB-TROPICAL
SHORTWAVE FORCING MOVING EAST ACROSS MEXICO, AND IT'S ASSOCIATED
ENERGY DISTURBANCE, WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON, INFLUENCING HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN COMMUNITIES,
AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN PUSH OVERNIGHT. INTO FRIDAY, THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION,
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. IT WON'T BE
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY EVEN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION, WITH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TRENDING DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESPOND TO THE DRIER
AFTERNOON, TRANSITIONING FROM THE RAIN INFLUENCED 70'S ON FRIDAY
BACK TO MID 80'S.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS BY STARING IN THE FACE OF A SLIGHT RISK
(15%) FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ARK-LA-
TEX. QUESTIONS ARE STILL ON TABLE SURROUNDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
MATERIALIZE. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR WILL
EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WITH DYNAMICS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THEY INITIATE. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR,
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOCALIZED INSTABILITY, ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE REGION COME MONDAY AM. ENTERING THE NEW WEEK, THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL APPEARANCE, WITH THE ECMWF
SUGGESTING A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD, WHILE THE GFS
APPEARS MORE ZONAL, BORDERING QUASI-ZONAL. NONETHELESS, THE FORECAST
THROUGH D7 CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK,
CLOSING OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER 80'S.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TO BECOME 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 84 64 75 / 0 10 30 70
MLU 58 83 63 78 / 0 0 10 40
DEQ 55 83 58 71 / 10 10 30 70
TXK 59 85 62 75 / 0 10 20 70
ELD 55 83 61 76 / 0 10 10 50
TYR 63 77 63 74 / 0 30 60 80
GGG 60 80 61 74 / 0 20 40 80
LFK 61 76 63 74 / 0 30 60 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...05
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