490
FXUS64 KSHV 271123
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
623 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO TROUGHING THAT HAS ENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO TEXAS. AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD, IT WILL DRAW
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON-SHORE AND CREATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME AREAWIDE
CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE MODE/DISTRIBUTION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TODAY, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO MOST OF TOMORROW AND BUILDING IN
COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ALL OF THIS WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS TOMORROW TO THE MIDDLE 70S/LOWER 80S. /16/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING WILL DRIVE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE) INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT APPRECIABLE BREAK FROM
ACTIVITY ARRIVES LATE ON MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AFTER ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH (WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY) PASSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND DISPLACE THIS ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH AFTER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN
SOUTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY. ACCOUNTING FOR THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE
OF PRECIPITATION, THE MEAN OF TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S/UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, RESPECTIVELY. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IMPACTING KTXK AND KMLU ON AND OFF.
THE FOG SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL DAYTIME
MIXING CAN BEGIN. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG STORY
TODAY WILL BE THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BEGINNING IN THE VICINITY OF KLFK BY MID MORNING. RAIN
WILL TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH MANY WESTERN SITES CONTINUING TO DROP TO LIFR
CEILINGS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 64 74 65 / 10 20 70 70
MLU 83 63 78 64 / 0 10 40 70
DEQ 82 57 70 60 / 10 30 70 70
TXK 84 63 73 64 / 10 30 70 70
ELD 84 61 77 61 / 10 10 40 70
TYR 79 62 71 64 / 30 60 90 50
GGG 81 62 72 62 / 20 40 80 60
LFK 76 62 73 63 / 40 50 90 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...57
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