727
FXUS64 KSHV 271901
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
201 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE MID-TX COAST CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES FROM KHGX, KPOE AND
KSHV SHOWCASE BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP WORKING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH AND
DEEP EAST TEXAS AS DENSE OVERCAST OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA.
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT NOT ALL OF THIS MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND, SOMETHING THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE HI-RES MODELING SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY TILTS
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FORCING SUPPORT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW, AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION AT THE SURFACE,
ALONG WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME ROTATION WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN QUICKLY MATURE. THIS SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
RATHER CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE LOCAL PARAMETERS IN PLAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THOUGH THE THREAT MAY BE LOW, THE
WIND, HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING EAST, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS
FOLLOWING WITH IT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE FLOW, WE SHOULD START TO DRY OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY EVEN ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN TO MIX IN THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY PASSING PRECIP, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY SCATTERED
THROUGH THE 70'S. LOWS TONIGHT, AND FRIDAY WILL APPEAR SIMILAR,
RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60'S.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS
THE PRECIP DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, A MIX OF UPPER 70'S
AND LOW 80'S WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. COME SUNDAY, A BROAD
AND IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR WILL MATERIALIZE, AS GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH LOOK TO BE IN PLACE. GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ALL OF
THIS SITS IN ADVANCE OF A ROBUST COLD FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY
CATCH UP TO A DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL TX. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, LOCALIZED DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT OF DEW POINTS > 60 DEG F, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES,
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WHERE ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE ARK-
LA-TEX VICINITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WOULD SUPPORT THE PROBS OF SEVERE STORMS. THOUGH TIMING
AND THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAIN IN
QUESTION, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON EVENT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
COME SUNRISE MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH SOME DEGREE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE POST FROPA EFFECT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS PASSAGES. THAT BEING SAID, ASIDE FROM ANY
PRECIP RELATED COOLING TO THE LOCAL TEMPERATURES, MONDAY FOR NOW IS
THE "COOLEST" AFTERNOON OF THE EXTENDED LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE PROSPECTS
FOR MORE RAIN IN THE FUTURE.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IMPACTING KTXK AND KMLU ON AND OFF.
THE FOG SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL DAYTIME
MIXING CAN BEGIN. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG STORY
TODAY WILL BE THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BEGINNING IN THE VICINITY OF KLFK BY MID MORNING. RAIN
WILL TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH MANY WESTERN SITES CONTINUING TO DROP TO LIFR
CEILINGS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 74 64 80 / 40 70 70 40
MLU 64 78 64 77 / 10 50 70 70
DEQ 58 70 59 79 / 30 70 70 40
TXK 63 73 63 81 / 40 70 70 40
ELD 60 76 60 78 / 20 60 70 60
TYR 62 72 63 84 / 70 70 50 10
GGG 61 73 61 82 / 60 70 60 20
LFK 62 74 63 83 / 60 70 70 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...57
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