172
FXUS64 KSHV 281640
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1140 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A QUICK UPDATE WAS MADE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECASTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. /20/
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH JUST MIDDECK ALONG AND EAST OF I-49
WITH LOW DECKS ARE STILL SCATTERED ALONG THE TX/LA STATE LINE.
WHERE RAIN SHOWERS ARE FALLING, LOW CLOUDS ARE DECKING WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE HIGHER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LAST NIGHT'S SOUNDING
SHOWED STILL LOADS OF DRY AIR BELOW THE MID AND FREEZING LEVEL. NO
FOG AROUND, BUT THE GROUND IS VERY DRY SO EVEN THAT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME, BUT MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE OCCURRING AND
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE RAINS DO. AIR TEMPS ARE MILD
IN THE 60S FROM 61 AT DEQUEEN AND 69 THE WARM SPOT IN MONROE WITH
STILL 1018MB.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PILING INTO TEXAS AND WILL SOON CLOSE
OFF AND SLOW IT'S MOVEMENT EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGING OVER THE SE
U.S. THE AIR MASS IS ALREADY OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND OUR
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OUR LOW LEVELS. THE MODELS
ALL TAKE THERE TIME WITH THIS ONE AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY
WITH QPF SIGNALS. THE GFS IS WETTEST ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHILE
THE NAM AND ECMWF DRAG STRONGER QPF SIGNAL WELL INLAND, AS THE
UPPER LOW OPENS EARLY SATURDAY AFTER CLIMBING THE RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM EVEN DEVELOPS ARE WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW
OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND AND LIFTS TOWARD OUR I-30 CORRIDOR BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW AND SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PRESSURES ALREADY
BELOW 1010MB SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS THE BEST SCENARIO FOR
A DECENT SHOT AT WEEKEND AFTERNOON'S BEING DRY, BUT LOW DECKS MAY
LINGER.
THE WPC DAY 1 ERO IS KINDA SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCES WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO NATCHITOCHES AND A MARGINAL RISK
SURROUNDING THAT, OVER E TX AND S AR COUNTIES, ALL DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD GET A GOOD NEEDED SOAKING
OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR ALL BUT OUR I-30 CORRIDOR AND SE OK WHERE
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. THE SPC IS CARRYING A
MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY AND GENERAL FOR SATURDAY, BUT THAT
CHANGES FOR THE WORSE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MAYBE SOME
FOG AROUND BY THIS TIME TOMORROW, AS ALL THE MODELS ALL RAMP UP
THEIR QPF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR TEMPS WILL KEEP MILD FOR
THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST,
AND THEN WARMER MID TO UPPER 70S AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE 60S WHILE OUR
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SE TODAY AND VEER TO S/SW FOR SATURDAY 5-15
MPH AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY US. /24/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE PATTERN REMAINS FULL GHOST RIDER WITH SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL
FLOW TOMORROW BEFORE MORE SW FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS RAMPS UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. WE WILL BE PRETTY
UNSTABLE WITH LESS POPS FOR THIS LEG, BUT THE LOWER 80S AREAWIDE
WILL BUILD THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE PICTURE AND SHIFTING WINDS TO W/NW BY MID
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT LEAST TO SHREVEPORT ANYWAY. THE SW
WINDS ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PERSIST FROM LUFKIN TO MONROE. THE
SPC DAY 4 ACTUALLY KEEPS A TOE HOLD ON THE BOOT HEEL OF LASALLE
WHILE ENDING AND SHIFTING TO NW AS WELL. ALL MODES OF SPRING
SEVERE WEATHER ARE ON THE TABLE AND WILL SEND MARCH ON IT'S WAY
GOING OUT LIKE A LION.
APRIL GETS A COOL AND DRY START WITH A 1024MB SURFACE AIR MASS
ANCHORED IN THE MIDWEST U.S. AND EXTENDING DOWN THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. COOLER 50S FOR LOWS RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK ALONG WITH
70S FOR HIGHS, NEAR AVERAGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN WARMING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. OUR NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES A
DEEP LOW, SURFACE AND UPPER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WE WILL SEE A
WIND SHIFT TROUGH DREDGE UP A GOOD RAIN OF ANOTHER HALF INCH OR
SO. THEN LEAVES THE FRONT STATIONARY ON I-20 FOR SOME MORE
LAGNIAPPE THROUGH THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E TX, AS AREAS OF SHRA PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA AS
WELL AS SE OK AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SE TX AS OF 1145Z, AND
WILL SPREAD NNE ACROSS DEEP E TX/N LA/SW AR LATER THIS MORNING,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF VCTS FOR ALL BUT THE TYR TERMINAL LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PERSISTING OVER CNTRL AND NE LA
THIS EVENING. THUS, CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS E TX, AND ACROSS WRN LA/SW AR THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS THIS EVENING. IN
FACT, CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF E TX,
BEFORE FALLING OVER WRN LA/SW AR THIS EVENING AS AREAS OF
-RA AND POTENTIALLY REDUCED VSBYS CONTINUE, BEFORE DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E LATE. SSE WINDS 7-11KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 64 80 66 / 70 80 40 10
MLU 78 64 77 66 / 50 80 80 0
DEQ 72 60 77 62 / 70 70 30 30
TXK 73 63 79 67 / 70 80 30 20
ELD 76 61 76 63 / 60 80 60 10
TYR 70 61 82 66 / 70 50 10 10
GGG 72 62 81 66 / 70 70 10 10
LFK 74 63 82 66 / 70 70 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...15
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