628
FXUS64 KSHV 282147
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
447 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A BUSY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, AS WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL STORMS
WITH ROTATION DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 66 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF OUR NORTH & CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARISHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THE WATCH
IS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20, WE HAVE ALSO SEEN ROTATING STORMS IN
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR
TODAY'S STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OUT
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES
WILL FOLLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. /20/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-60S. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OR DRYLINE FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
YIELDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER, EXPECT A LINE
OF STORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH QLCS TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AS
LONG-RANGE PROGS HINT AT THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE REGION.
/20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY VFR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, HEAVY AT
TIMES, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GENERALLY ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DISSIPATING LATER IN THE EVENING. A TEMPO HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE TO COVER EXPECTED TIMING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDUCE VSBYS TEMPORARILY (1-3SM) AND MAY DRAG CEILINGS
BRIEFLY DOWN TO MVFR. CEILINGS TO DROP OVERNIGHT TO IFR AND THEN
STRUGGLE TO RECOVER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VICINITY SHOWERS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY LOW CIGS THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY SE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING 10-12KTS, GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 20KTS
AND BECOMING VARIABLE AND GUSTY UP TO 35-40KTS WITHIN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
KOVACIK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 82 67 84 / 70 30 0 30
MLU 65 78 66 84 / 80 80 10 20
DEQ 60 80 62 82 / 70 20 40 40
TXK 64 81 67 83 / 80 30 20 40
ELD 61 79 63 83 / 90 70 10 30
TYR 63 82 67 82 / 40 0 10 30
GGG 62 82 66 84 / 70 10 0 30
LFK 63 83 66 84 / 60 20 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...23
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