240
FXUS64 KSHV 291725
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1225 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
DECIDED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT AND FUTURE FORECASTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND SOME SUNSHINE TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA
JUST BEFORE SUNSET. /20/
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CLOUDY AND MILD THIS MORNING WITH MUGGY S/SE WINDS 5-15 MPH. AIR
TEMPS ARE WELL MIXED WITH MID 60S PRIMARILY AREAWIDE. OUR DEW
POINTS ARE OFFERING ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEPARATION AS LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE LINGER. THE KSHV 88D IS INDICATING THE MODERATE
AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW EXTENDING FROM NATCHITOCHES TO
MONROE AND LIFTING AWAY TO THE N/NE. NEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER DEEP EAST TX, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
HRRR, LIFTING IN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF I-49. THIS SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL LINGER FOR HOURS AS
SPOTTY INCREASING COVERAGE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS THE
SUNSHINE SLOWLY FILTERS THROUGH THE THINNING CLOUDS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NO CHANGES TO THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FROM THE
SPC WITH THEIR GENERAL RISK INTACT FOR TODAY'S DAY 1. THEY DO
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK NUDGING INTO OUR NW EDGE OF THE CWA FROM A
FEW OF OUR NE TX AND SE OK COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SO, JUST AS WE GET
RID OF THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST, THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL FOSTER DEVELOPMENT WITH OUR NEXT EVENT.
MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH MORE MIDDLE 60S.
THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW REMAINS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK REMAINS ENHANCED FOR
THE ARKLATEX, ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
LOWS WILL EDGE OFF THE FRONT RANGE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS TAKES THE LEAD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER N TX
AND E OK. THIS WEAK SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
FILL FROM 999MB TO 1005MB DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. AIR
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH LOW TO MID 80S BOLSTERING THE
INSTABILITY FOR THE LATE DAY AS THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
MIDDAY CAPPING AND A LULL IN CONVECTION. THE GFS FIRES UP THE
DEVELOPING LINE ON THE FRONT BEFORE SUNSET AND THROUGH THE EVENING
PRIMARILY. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW AT 5% IN THE ENHANCED
SECTOR AND 2% FOR THE SLIGHT RISK COVERING THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA. HERE WE SEE GREATER RISKS FOR HAIL WITH OUR ENTIRE AREA
HATCHED AND THE WIND THREAT AT 30% FOR THE ENHANCED FOR THESE TWO
PRIMARY THREATS THAT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE ON SUNDAY. AN
EMAIL DETAILING MORE ON THIS THREAT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
MORNING. SO NO CHANGES OVERALL AS MARCH'S END LEANS LION VERSES
LAMB. /24/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BOTH ON THE CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DRIVES
IN FROM THE NW. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS SHIFTING MID TO LATE EVENING
ACROSS I-30 AND THEN ACROSS I-20 AND DOWN THE I-49 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN ENDING BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRESENT A LARGE RANGE OF LOWS FROM MID 40S ALONG I-30 TO MOSTLY
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN OUR SE PARISHES STILL WAITING ON THE
CCA. HIGHS TEMPS WILL SEE LESS OF RANGE WITH UPPER 60S NORTH AND
LOW 70S NORTH OF I-20. FARTHER SOUTH WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. SKIES BE CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE LAST
DAY OF THE MONTH.
THEN APRIL 1ST STARTS OFF AVERAGE FOR A BRIEF CHANGE WITH DAILY
CLIMATE UNCHANGED, THEN WE SEE THAT QUICKLY SLIP AWAY WITH MORE
ABOVE AVERAGE 80S FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT THEN ROCKET BACK IN THE MUGGY RANGE
AS WE MORE RAINFALL TAKING AIM ON OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. THE CENTER
OF THE COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND LIGHT NW
FLOW ALOFT BOTH ALSO PASS BY QUICKLY. THEN WINDS ALOFT BACK TO
ZONAL BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY, FALL RIGHT BACK TO STORMY SW FLOW AND
MORE CONVECTION MID TO LATE WEEK THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEPER LOW TRACKING OVER MEXICO, UNDER
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. THIS "HIGH OVER LOW
SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS ALWAYS "SLOW TO GO" AS IS MOST
TYPICAL AS THE STORM TRACK UNDERGOES CHANGES AS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BEGINS TO WARM IN THE SPRING INSOLATION. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, CLOUD BREAKS AND CLEARING ARE NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE WEST OF WESTERN TAF SITES (LFK, TYR,
TXK). CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
LIKELY SCATTERING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOUTHERLY SURGE OF LOW CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TO MVFR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF IFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS SUCH AS LFK. A BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH TYR AND TXK IN
THE 07-12Z TIMEFRAME WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THIS ACTIVITY AND EVEN LOWER IN TERMS OF EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT IF IT IS ABLE TO MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN TAF SITES.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING, LIKELY REMAINING SUB-VFR
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. WINDS S/SE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10KTS,
BECOMING S/SW EARLY SUNDAY BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTING TO
20-25KTS PERIODICALLY.
KOVACIK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE SUNDAY AND PORTIONS OF
THE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 85 58 74 / 0 40 70 20
MLU 65 85 61 75 / 10 20 90 50
DEQ 63 81 45 69 / 40 50 40 10
TXK 66 82 53 72 / 20 40 60 10
ELD 63 84 52 73 / 10 40 80 20
TYR 67 82 53 72 / 10 30 50 10
GGG 66 83 54 73 / 10 40 50 10
LFK 66 84 62 79 / 0 40 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...23
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