871
FXUS64 KSHV 300621
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
121 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED AND/OR EXITED TO OUR EAST THIS
EVENING AND THAT SHOULD STAY THE CASE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN WE
BEGIN LOOKING UPSTREAM FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THAT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX, SE OK AND SW AR. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF NE TX AND/OR SE OK SO HAVE EXPANDED
OVERNIGHT POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NW HALF AND GIVEN THE FACT
THAT SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAYONE CONVECTIVE RISK ACROSS THIS
SAME GENERAL AREA. HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO THE WEATHER TYPE FOR OUR OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THIS
GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT, HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT A
WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE THE CLOSER WE GET TO SUNRISE IN THE
MORNING AS WELL.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE BALLPARK SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.
13
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT RAIN
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ZONES, GENERALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR. IN
WAKE OF THIS PRECIP, WE WILL SEE SOME GLIMPSE OF THE SUN MOVE IN
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EVENTUALLY, ALL THE PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNSET.
HOWEVER, THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COOL FRONT. IN FACT, SHORT-TERM PROGS HAVE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING AS EARLY AS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS,
WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
EAST TEXAS, EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. IT ISN'T OUT THE QUESTION TO
SEE A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
BUT, BELIEF IS THAT THE AM CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND
WILL DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW THE SUSTAINED 20 MPH
WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S AREAWIDE, WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING IN THE MID 60S. THIS WILL HELP CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH OR DRYLINE LIKE FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE
STORMS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER, EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO FORM AND PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. /20/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL LIKELY STOP THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND STALL IT OUT NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, MVFR CIGS ARRIVING WITH SOME IFR
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN THE
PREDAWN THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT OUT THE NEXT PUSH WITH A
COLD FRONT ON APPROACH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GATHER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY 31/00-09Z ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME MAY
BE SEVERE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO W/NW -04-09Z. CONVECTION
WILL BE ENDING BEHIND FROPA WITH A SEASONAL START TO THE WEEK.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE SUNDAY AND PORTIONS OF
THE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 75 54 82 / 80 10 0 0
MLU 64 76 51 79 / 90 20 0 10
DEQ 48 71 46 77 / 50 10 0 10
TXK 55 73 51 80 / 70 10 0 0
ELD 56 74 47 78 / 80 10 0 0
TYR 57 74 53 83 / 60 10 0 0
GGG 57 74 52 83 / 70 10 0 0
LFK 65 79 57 85 / 50 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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