901
FXUS64 KSHV 301203
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
703 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY PROGRESSED ENE INTO NE TX/SE OK
AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR THIS MORNING, ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK S INTO
NCNTRL TX. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS AMPLE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS, CHARACTERISTIC OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR DOES BEGIN TO WEAKEN BELOW 30KTS OVER
WRN AR, THUS SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THIS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR MWL AND W/N OF ACT IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AND GREATER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH, WITH SOME SUGGESTION AMONGST THE 00Z NAM/GFS THAT THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FARTHER E INTO E TX THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE HRRR STILL CONTINUES TO HANDLE THIS CONVECTION
EVOLUTION POORLY, ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS HREF ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
00Z NAM/GFS BUILDING THE CONVECTION E, WHICH COULD POSE A MARGINAL
SVR THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHES LATER THIS MORNING, A LULL IN THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS WE AWAIT FOR FURTHER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING, AND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS,
ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL WAIT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS. THUS, STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM E TX INTO SW AR/NW
LA NEAR AND SE OF THE FRONT, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CONVECTION
SHIFTS E INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEAR OR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
MONDAY. WHILE THE HI-RES PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK, A SLOWER PROGRESSION AS SUGGESTED BY THE
NAM/GFS IS PREFERRED, WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CNTRL/NE LA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
THE FRONT SHIFTS S OUT OF THE REGION AND ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL SHIFT S OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MIX S AS WELL, WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
MORE SEASONAL VALUES.
15
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WITH SFC RIDGING SHIFTING E FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, SFC WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER E MONDAY
NIGHT, AND SSE AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY, WHICH WILL RETURN MUCH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK N INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA, AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SW OVER
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SW INTO NRN BAJA/NRN OLD
MX. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NE ACROSS N TX INTO SE OK ALONG THE NOSE OF A
SRLY LLJ, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY NW OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PROGRESS ESE INTO PORTIONS OF N TX/SE OK INTO NW AR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY, WHICH SHOULD FOCUS PERIODS OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. THE NBM REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH
POPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS FRONT WILL WAFFLE
BACK AND FORTH, THUS FOCUSING REPEATED ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW, HAVE LOWERED ANY CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES GIVEN THE TIMING AND SPACIAL VARIABILITY AMONGST THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC PROGS, ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL
QPF'S OF 5-8+ INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE NRN ZONES (N OF I-20), RESULTING
IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL EACH DAY, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND
UNTIL THE DESERT SW LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ABLE TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE
SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/OK BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SOME CONVECTION
THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT OUT THE NEXT PUSH WITH A
COLD FRONT ON APPROACH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GATHER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY 31/00-09Z ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME MAY
BE SEVERE AS S/SW WINDS SHIFT TO W/NW 03-09Z. CONVECTION WILL BE
ENDING BEHIND FROPA WITH A SEASONAL START TO THE WEEK. MORE
CONVECTION TO RETURN LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 62 75 55 / 30 80 10 0
MLU 86 64 75 52 / 10 80 20 0
DEQ 84 48 72 46 / 40 30 10 0
TXK 87 55 75 51 / 40 60 10 0
ELD 86 57 74 47 / 30 80 10 0
TYR 86 56 73 54 / 30 50 10 0
GGG 86 57 74 53 / 30 70 10 0
LFK 86 64 78 57 / 30 40 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24
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