164
FXUS64 KSHV 302359 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
659 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THINGS HAVE BEEN QUIET SO FAR SINCE THIS MORNING CONVECTION
DISSIPATED. BUT, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
SEEN SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH, THOSE READINGS HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY. REGARDLESS, IT WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OUT THERE, SO EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA WATERWAYS
AND ROADWAYS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR DRYLINE
LIKE FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH TODAY'S SOUTHERLY WINDS RAISING OUR DEW
POINTS INTO THE MID 60S AND TEMPS INTO THE 80S, THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE.
DISCRETE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE OF A QLCS
FEATURE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING, AS THE FRONT EXISTS THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING BACK INTO THE
50S AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S
IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. /20/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR MORE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL LIKELY STOP THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND STALL IT OUT NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THIS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE THING OF NOTE WILL
BE WHERE THE FRONT HANGS UP NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FRONT
COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
LESS SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS MORE SOUTHWARD, IT COULD BE A BUSY WEEK
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD
INITIALLY AFFECT SHV / TYR / GGG/ LFK THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
IMPACTS ARE LESS CERTAIN AT TXK AS THERE IS A DECENT PROBABILITY
MOST OF THE STORMS FIRING UP ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT COULD
WAIT UNTIL COLD FRONT CLEARS SOUTH OF TXK. STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
ELD AND MLU. THE MAIN RISK WITH SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. EXPECT PROBLEMATIC
TO MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AT SHV, ELD, MLU, AND LFK AND LIKELY WILL NOT LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS UNTIL LATER TOMORROW MORNING AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS WILL BE
A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SSW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT THEN
SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AT 8 TO 15 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. /50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 75 56 82 / 70 10 0 0
MLU 64 76 53 82 / 70 20 0 0
DEQ 48 73 47 78 / 30 10 0 0
TXK 55 75 52 81 / 60 10 0 0
ELD 56 75 48 80 / 70 10 0 0
TYR 55 75 57 84 / 50 10 0 0
GGG 56 75 55 83 / 60 10 0 0
LFK 63 78 60 85 / 60 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...50
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page