985
FXUS64 KSHV 310601
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
101 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THINGS HAVE BEEN QUIET SO FAR SINCE THIS MORNING CONVECTION
DISSIPATED. BUT, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
SEEN SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH, THOSE READINGS HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY. REGARDLESS, IT WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OUT THERE, SO EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA WATERWAYS
AND ROADWAYS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR DRYLINE
LIKE FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH TODAY'S SOUTHERLY WINDS RAISING OUR DEW
POINTS INTO THE MID 60S AND TEMPS INTO THE 80S, THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE.
DISCRETE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE OF A QLCS
FEATURE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING, AS THE FRONT EXISTS THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING BACK INTO THE
50S AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S
IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. /20/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR MORE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL LIKELY STOP THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND STALL IT OUT NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THIS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE THING OF NOTE WILL
BE WHERE THE FRONT HANGS UP NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FRONT
COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
LESS SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS MORE SOUTHWARD, IT COULD BE A BUSY WEEK
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, FROPA THROUGH MOST TX TERMINALS WITH
N/NW10-20KT AND STILL SW-SE5-15KT AHEAD. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RUNNING S OF I-20,MOVG ESE21KT, ALSO STORMS LINING UP N OF I-20
BETWEEN KSHV AND KELD(UNDER THE GUN FOR A COUPLE OF HRS). KMLU
UNDER ANVIL THUNDER COULD SEE A STORM ON THE FRONT PREDAWN AND
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAIL NEAR KLFK IN A FEW HOURS. SKC SOONER FOR
HALF OR SO, BUT IFR/MVFR COULD LINGER PAST NOON FOR SITES FROM
KLFK-KSHV-KMLU. GUIDANCE ON CIGS IS SPLIT AS N/NE 5-15KT PREVAILS.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 56 82 71 88 / 0 0 10 60
MLU 53 82 71 88 / 0 0 10 40
DEQ 47 78 64 78 / 0 0 50 70
TXK 52 81 70 85 / 0 0 30 70
ELD 48 80 67 87 / 0 0 10 70
TYR 57 84 70 84 / 0 0 20 60
GGG 55 83 68 86 / 0 0 10 60
LFK 60 85 70 88 / 0 0 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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