955
FXUS64 KSHV 311904
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET DRIVES
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND AN ENLONGATED UPPER-LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. OTHERWISE, HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 80
DEGREES. /05/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PROLONGED
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL PROVIDE THE
INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX. AS AN UPPER-LOW
SETTLES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, COULD SEE ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN ADDITION TO A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON AN IMPULSE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST WITHIN THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BASED ON THE TIMING AND DEFINITION OF THE
IMPULSE, THE ARKLATEX COULD BE POSITIONED SUCH THAT AS STORMS
DEVELOP, THEY WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
BRUNT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER TO REACH MATURITY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLICATED FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEAVES THE ARKLATEX VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED
PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BOUTS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. EXACT ESTIMATES
ON RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS
SOME DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
FOR THE 31/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AFTER LINGERING MVFR CLOUD DECKS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND THIN OUT BY 01/00Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 5-10
KTS. WILL WANE AFTER 01/03Z BEFORE GAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
BY 01/12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 84 71 87 / 0 0 10 60
MLU 52 81 71 87 / 0 0 10 50
DEQ 45 79 65 77 / 0 0 50 90
TXK 51 83 70 85 / 0 0 30 80
ELD 47 80 67 87 / 0 0 10 80
TYR 56 84 71 84 / 0 0 20 60
GGG 53 83 69 84 / 0 0 10 60
LFK 59 83 70 86 / 0 0 10 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16
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