419
FXUS64 KSHV 301718
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1218 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WHILE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS, NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, AND SOUTH ARKANSAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO SWING
EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS
THE UPPER-LOW APPROACHES A SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. DEWPOINT VALUES IN UPPER 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL FURTHER AID IN DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW. DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES,
LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE INITIAL THREAT. CONVECTION
MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING RESULTING IN AN
ALL THREATS SCENARIO.
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LOW SWING EAST INTO MISSOURI.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE ARKLATEX. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRANSLATING EAST WITHIN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT, WILL
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /05/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A LONGWAVE
UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-CONUS. AS THE UPPER-
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS, RIDGING TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE ARKLATEX FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM LOWS IN THE 50S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. OTHERWISE, COULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-RIDGE SHIFT EAST. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ANY REMAINING MVFR TERMINALS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LOW VFR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION, STILL
WATCHING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE I-30
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRIED TO DISTANCE SPEED THIS LINE
OF CONVECTION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IMPACTING ALL OUR
TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNCERTAIN AS TO STORM COVERAGE ON
THURSDAY BUT DID MENTION AT LEAST VCSH OR VCTS BY LATE MORNING
NEAR BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OUR I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS ON THU.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 70 87 68 / 40 60 50 20
MLU 87 70 86 66 / 10 30 80 30
DEQ 81 62 83 61 / 80 90 20 20
TXK 86 66 86 65 / 70 80 40 20
ELD 87 65 84 62 / 20 70 60 30
TYR 84 68 85 66 / 80 60 20 30
GGG 85 67 86 65 / 70 70 40 20
LFK 85 70 88 67 / 50 50 50 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>072.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>003.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...13
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