767
FXUS64 KSHV 010523
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 446 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO EXPAND TOR WATCH #198 FOR UNION COUNTY AR,
AS WELL AS UNION, LINCOLN, OUACHITA, AND JACKSON PARISHES IN NORTH
LA, BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
SRN AR/EXTREME NW LA AS IT SHIFTS E NEAR 30KTS, AND SHOULD AFFECT
THESE AREAS BY/PRIOR TO 01Z. ALSO HAD TO BEEF UP POPS/ADD SEVERE
WORDING FOR THESE AREAS AS THE CONVECTION MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO
OUTPACE THE HI-RES PROGS. THUS, HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
POPS E INTO THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED TOR WATCH #197 FOR
MUCH OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WHERE THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS MOVED
THROUGH THESE AREAS AND STABILIZED THE AIR MASS. WILL HAVE TO SEND
ANOTHER UPDATE ONCE TOR WATCH #197 EXPIRES AT 22Z.
15
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: ALL EYES IN THE OFFICE REMAIN
HYPERFOCUSED ON THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. AS SUCH, TORNADO WATCH 197 AND 198 REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER THROUGH OUR REGION WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW SEVERE
IT WILL REMAIN THE LATER IT GETS.
MAIN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. PLEASE SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES OR WEBSITE FOR THE
LATEST ON THE WATCHES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE
STARTING TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND NOON. FROM
HERE, WE WAIT TO SEE IF THINGS CAN REIGNITE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
REGION, BUT THE FORCING IS WEAK, AND WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO
COMPETE WITH A CAP OVER THE AREA. SO THIS COULD LIMIT OUR STORM
PRODUCTION DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR INTO OUR AREA THIS MCS COULD GET, MAYBE
JUST TOUCHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NONETHELESS, WITH THE RAINFALL
RECEIVED, AND MORE COMING, THIS COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERN TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WITH THE ENTIRE AREA AT
LEAST IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. /33/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
WISH I COULD SAY THAT THURSDAY WOULD BE THE END OF OUR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THAT JUST IS NOT THE CASE. A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
TO BE LIMITED RIGHT NOW FOR FRIDAY, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ON
FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET TODAY AND THURSDAY.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW AS SOME WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ONE THING TO NOTE ABOUT NEXT WEEK, SHOULD THE LONG-RANGE MODELS
VERIFY, IT LOOKS LIKE AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN COULD SET UP BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ACCORDING TO THE GFS ANYWAYS. GUESS IT
CAN'T REALLY BE CONSIDERED A BLOCKING PATTERN YET BECAUSE IT DOES
NOT LOOK TO STICK AROUND VERY LONG. FOR REFERENCE, I THINK I WOULD
BE OK WITH THIS PATTERN NOT SETTING UP AS THIS WOULD BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND NO RAIN FOR OUR REGION DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
WOULD SET UP IF IT SHOULD SET UP. ANYWHO, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE LONG-TERM MIGHT START OFF WITH SOME RAIN BEFORE DRYING UP FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF IT. /33/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS, A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH ARKLATEX AIRSPACE, ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY
ORIENTED FROM KLFK TO KSHV AND KELD AS OF 01/05Z. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT VSBY
REDUCTIONS, AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMLU IN
THE COMING HOURS, REFLECTED IN A TEMPO GROUP. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THESE STORMS, IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
THE MORNING SEEING A MARKED INCREASE TO VFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AND FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
DEVELOPING A SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION DURING THE DAY AND PICKING UP
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 68 83 64 / 30 10 70 80
MLU 84 66 84 65 / 60 20 60 70
DEQ 83 62 75 55 / 10 20 80 50
TXK 84 65 78 60 / 20 20 80 60
ELD 83 63 80 60 / 50 20 70 70
TYR 85 67 80 62 / 10 10 80 80
GGG 86 66 81 62 / 20 10 80 80
LFK 87 68 84 64 / 40 10 70 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ061-070>072.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>004.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ112-124>126-
136>138-149>151.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...26
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