741
FXUS64 KSHV 011026
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
WITH ALL OF THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FROM OVERNIGHT NOW EXPIRED,
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH. /05/
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS
WILL EXIT THE ARKLATEX DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LINGERING
RAIN IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK. COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERING FROM NEAR LUFKIN INTO WEST-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX BECOMES ZONAL CAUSING SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF ONGOING
PRECIPITATION TO STALL AND TRAIN EASTWARD.
WITH DEWPOINT VALUES NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION, LOWER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LAYERS WILL
INCREASE AS A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT
MOVES EAST ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ASSUMING THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT CAN
RECOVER FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION AND THE PREVAILING CLOUD
SHIELD CAN DISSIPATE, DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
HIGHEST THREAT WITH SOME STORMS.
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN RETURNING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /05/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE ALOFT AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE WEST. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY TO PUSH SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A REPLACEMENT
AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARKLATEX BECOMING
INFLUENCED BY A LINGERING UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST
UPPER-FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS, A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH ARKLATEX AIRSPACE, ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY
ORIENTED FROM KLFK TO KSHV AND KELD AS OF 01/05Z. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT VSBY
REDUCTIONS, AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMLU IN
THE COMING HOURS, REFLECTED IN A TEMPO GROUP. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THESE STORMS, IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
THE MORNING SEEING A MARKED INCREASE TO VFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AND FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
DEVELOPING A SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION DURING THE DAY AND PICKING UP
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 68 83 64 / 30 10 80 80
MLU 85 66 85 65 / 70 10 60 70
DEQ 83 62 76 54 / 10 20 80 50
TXK 85 65 79 59 / 20 10 80 60
ELD 83 64 81 60 / 50 10 70 70
TYR 86 67 80 61 / 10 10 80 70
GGG 86 66 82 61 / 30 10 80 80
LFK 88 68 84 64 / 40 20 80 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...26
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