358
FXUS64 KSHV 011753
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1253 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR ACROSS NW LA AND FAR E
TX, WHICH AFFECTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIP AS WELL AS KEPT
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER ACROSS THIS AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS TROUGHING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS, WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD
FRONT/QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR SE OK INTO THE MIDWEST. ASIDE
FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR I-20,
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN LARGELY QUIET THIS MORNING. THAT MAY CHANGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZE, POSSIBLY YIELDING UP TO AROUND 4000 J/KG MLCAPE
AMONGST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. THESE CONDITIONS,
COMBINED WITH THE PASSING OF A SUBTLE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD
FOSTER AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WIND, AND POSSIBLY HAIL. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS
IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, GIVEN THE OVERALL ABSENCE OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT AND
FUTURE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE EXACT DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS OF EARLIER CONVECTION/SHOWERS AND
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER.
KOVACIK
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS
WILL EXIT THE ARKLATEX DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LINGERING
RAIN IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK. COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERING FROM NEAR LUFKIN INTO WEST-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX BECOMES ZONAL CAUSING SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF ONGOING
PRECIPITATION TO STALL AND TRAIN EASTWARD.
WITH DEWPOINT VALUES NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION, LOWER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LAYERS WILL
INCREASE AS A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT
MOVES EAST ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ASSUMING THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT CAN
RECOVER FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION AND THE PREVAILING CLOUD
SHIELD CAN DISSIPATE, DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
HIGHEST THREAT WITH SOME STORMS.
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN RETURNING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /05/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE ALOFT AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE WEST. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY TO PUSH SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A REPLACEMENT
AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARKLATEX BECOMING
INFLUENCED BY A LINGERING UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST
UPPER-FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
STILL SEEING SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS LATE HOUR BUT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 TERMINALS AND PERHAPS ALSO
INCLUDING THE ELD TERMINAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT WE TURN OUR EYES UPSTREAM FOR ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PROMISING TO IMPACT OUR TERMINALS ON FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME ON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. IN ADDITION, VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR AND/OR IFR ONCE AGAIN
TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 83 64 79 / 10 80 80 30
MLU 66 85 65 78 / 10 60 70 40
DEQ 62 76 54 76 / 20 80 50 10
TXK 65 79 59 78 / 10 80 60 20
ELD 64 81 60 77 / 10 70 70 30
TYR 67 80 61 76 / 10 80 70 20
GGG 66 82 61 77 / 10 80 80 30
LFK 68 84 64 78 / 20 80 80 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...13
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