836
FXUS64 KSHV 012345
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON REPRESENTS A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A
TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OFF THE SOUTHERN
CA COAST. THIS PLACES THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A QUASI-
ZONAL TO SLIGHT SW MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ARGUABLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED
ACROSS E TX INTO AR, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOUND TO THE S/SE.
MRMS RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTERNOON IS MUCH QUIETER AS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO, HOWEVER, A SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL EXISTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
LA AND SE TX/S LA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING AND DO EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO SOME EXTENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000-3000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
LOCAL AREA, WITH PEAK VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INSTABILITY OF
THIS DEGREE COMBINED WITH 30-40KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IF CONVECTION CAN MATERIALIZE,
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WITH
RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE CAPABLE OF HINDERING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THAT SAID,
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS INTERESTING INTO FRIDAY AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER OK IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX/MCS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE SE TOWARDS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX AND IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. MUCAPE OF AT
LEAST 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES
SOUTH, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, AS WELL
AS SOME LARGE HAIL. AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, IT MAY WEAKEN, WITH THE PRIMARY REASONING BEING THE
ABSENCE OF A DIURNAL BOOST TO INSTABILITY, HOWEVER MUCAPE COULD
PROVE TO BE SUFFICIENT DURING ITS CONTINUED JOURNEY SOUTH. BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. WHILE ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
COMPLEX, WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME DISCRETE ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX, ALSO POSING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
CONVECTION WILL EXIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
KOVACIK
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY, FEATURING A
ROBUST, YET PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
AND MIDWEST, WHICH WILL HELP SWING THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. THE MORNING HOURS MAY FEATURE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE, ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. SATURDAY WILL END UP BEING A PLEASANT DAY FOR EARLY MAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
SUCH PLEASANT AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
ENJOYING THIS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE, THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
EVOLVING SUCH THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE CONUS, WITH AREAS OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE PRESENT ON THE
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FLANKS, ESSENTIALLY REFLECTIVE OF AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS IS SUPPORTED CURRENTLY BY JUST ABOUT ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, LENDING TO RATHER CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT.
THIS WILL END UP HAVING NOTABLE FORECAST IMPLICATIONS, BUT LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE ON MONDAY IN BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST, WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK TOWARDS 60.
THINGS CHANGE INTO TUESDAY, WITH ALL WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SOLUTIONS PORTRAYING THE UPSTREAM LOW OF THE OMEGA BLOCK MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SW/NW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SW FLOW ALOFT, WHICH OFTEN SIGNALS THE ARRIVAL OF
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS QUITE HIGH THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN IN
EARNEST ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SETUP, THIS MAY ACTUALLY
MARK DAY 1 IN WHAT COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLY A FLOOD CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION. BEING THAT THIS IS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP AND EXACTLY HOW HEAVY THE RAIN WILL
BE. THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH EASTWARD IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY,
BUT THESE PATTERNS CAN BE SLOW TO BE PROGRESSIVE, ESPECIALLY WHEN
DEALING WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN SUCH AS THIS. SO, THIS COULD YIELD
A SEVERE AND HYDRO THREAT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
JUST OUTSIDE OF IT, AGAIN OF WHICH WILL BE MONITORED.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
PREDAWN. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-15KT AND GUSTY AROUND CONVECTION. KSHV
THUNDER HEARD IN THE THIS WRITING AND MORE TO COME FRIDAY. AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX TONIGHT
AND ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING
COOL FRONT TO INCREASE COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. N/NW WINDS FILTER
IN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AND LINGER IFR/MVFR EARLY SATURDAY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND LUNCH. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 81 63 78 / 20 80 80 10
MLU 65 85 64 78 / 20 70 80 50
DEQ 61 77 53 74 / 40 90 50 0
TXK 64 80 58 76 / 10 90 70 10
ELD 62 80 59 76 / 10 80 70 10
TYR 66 80 59 75 / 10 90 70 10
GGG 65 80 59 76 / 20 90 80 10
LFK 66 84 63 78 / 20 80 80 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...24
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