970
FXUS64 KSHV 020327
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1027 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ANOTHER BUSY EVENING, BUT FORTUNATELY, THE CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED WITH THE SETTING SUN, ASIDE FROM SEVERE CONVECTION
THAT LINGERS JUST E OF THE AREA OVER NE LA. THE EVENING SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM SEVERE
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY THAT
HAS SHIFTED SE INTO PORTIONS OF SE TX THIS EVENING. THIS DEBRIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BEFORE THE LOW STRATUS SHIELD DEVELOPS LATE. THUS, EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS, TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID EVENING
OBS.
WILL BE WATCHING UPSTREAM FROM CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS IT ACCELERATES SE
THROUGH OK OVERNIGHT. A MODEST SWRLY LLJ WILL HELP INVIGORATE
CONVECTION LATE BEFORE WEAKENING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, BUT IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT ENTERS THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, THE ATTENDANT
COLD POOL FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILE AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS, ESPECIALLY AS DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. DID NOT TOUCH POPS BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY,
BUT DID TRIM BACK POPS TO THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE
VARIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS. AS FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, DID HAVE TO
RAISE TEMPS SOME 3-6 DEGREES AREAWIDE GIVEN THE DENSE ELEVATED
CIGS IN PLACE, AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT 02-03Z OBS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
PREDAWN. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-15KT AND GUSTY AROUND CONVECTION. KSHV
THUNDER HEARD IN THE THIS WRITING AND MORE TO COME FRIDAY. AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX TONIGHT
AND ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING
COOL FRONT TO INCREASE COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. N/NW WINDS FILTER
IN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AND LINGER IFR/MVFR EARLY SATURDAY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND LUNCH. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE NEEDED
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 81 63 78 / 20 80 80 10
MLU 68 85 64 78 / 20 70 80 50
DEQ 64 77 53 74 / 40 90 50 0
TXK 67 80 58 76 / 20 90 70 10
ELD 65 80 59 76 / 20 80 70 10
TYR 68 80 59 75 / 10 90 70 10
GGG 67 80 59 76 / 10 90 80 10
LFK 68 84 63 78 / 20 80 80 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...24
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