228
FXUS64 KSHV 020559
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ANOTHER BUSY EVENING, BUT FORTUNATELY, THE CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED WITH THE SETTING SUN, ASIDE FROM SEVERE CONVECTION
THAT LINGERS JUST E OF THE AREA OVER NE LA. THE EVENING SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM SEVERE
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY THAT
HAS SHIFTED SE INTO PORTIONS OF SE TX THIS EVENING. THIS DEBRIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BEFORE THE LOW STRATUS SHIELD DEVELOPS LATE. THUS, EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS, TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID EVENING
OBS.
WILL BE WATCHING UPSTREAM FROM CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS IT ACCELERATES SE
THROUGH OK OVERNIGHT. A MODEST SWRLY LLJ WILL HELP INVIGORATE
CONVECTION LATE BEFORE WEAKENING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, BUT IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT ENTERS THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, THE ATTENDANT
COLD POOL FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILE AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS, ESPECIALLY AS DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. DID NOT TOUCH POPS BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY,
BUT DID TRIM BACK POPS TO THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE
VARIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS. AS FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, DID HAVE TO
RAISE TEMPS SOME 3-6 DEGREES AREAWIDE GIVEN THE DENSE ELEVATED
CIGS IN PLACE, AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT 02-03Z OBS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR/IFR AS ROUNDS OF -TSRA UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM AFTER
02/15Z COMBINE WITH ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AIRSPACE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES FURTHER INTO THE AIRSPACE. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH SUNSET. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 63 78 54 / 80 80 10 0
MLU 85 64 78 54 / 70 80 50 0
DEQ 77 53 74 47 / 90 50 0 0
TXK 80 58 76 51 / 90 70 10 0
ELD 80 59 76 49 / 80 70 10 0
TYR 80 59 75 52 / 90 70 10 0
GGG 80 59 76 51 / 90 80 10 0
LFK 84 63 78 54 / 80 80 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16
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