297
FXUS64 KSHV 021143
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK TO BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH ONE MORE ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE WE FINALLY SEE A REPRIEVE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOOKING AT CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY, WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST
UPSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MOST
RECENT HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
RATHER INTENSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES SE OKLAHOMA AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WITH THAT SAID, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE OUACHITAS
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
MOVING TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SOMEWHAT LAG THE EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION AND
IN DOING SO, WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE HEATING PRIOR TO FROPA ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT
IN SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES SURGING INTO THE RANGE OF 3500-4500 J/KG
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-30 WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-30
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
AVERAGE NEAR 7 DEGREES C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON SO LOOK FOR RAPID
STORM INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED CAPPING
IN PLACE IS QUICKLY ERODED WITH SFC HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. DISCRETE
STORMS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20. MEANWHILE, A MORE LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO I-30 INVOF OF THE COLD FRONT AND
SHOULD PRESENT A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF SHEAR OVERALL, THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER BY COMPARISON BUT
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE EQUATION. LIKEWISE, FLASH FLOODING MAY
ALSO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE THREAT SCALE BUT GIVEN OUR RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, IT WILL BEAR WATCHING
AS WELL.
BY THIS EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED
ACROSS OUR SE HALF AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO OVERTAKE OUR NW
ZONES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE WITH THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
WANE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH MORE LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY BY
THAT TIME. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERNMOST
ZONES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION EVENTUALLY
ENDING AREAWIDE AROUND THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME. POST-FRONTAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALSO BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
/19/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT AND EVEN
A BIT COOL BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS SATURDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES.
SUNNY SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME TIME TO DRYING OUT AFTER A
RATHER WET PERIOD OVER THE PAST WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS STRETCH
OF DRY AND COMFORTABLE SPRING WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, SENDING THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUR DIRECTION ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, THE TROUGH EJECTION THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL
SLOW TO A CRAWL AND RESULT IN MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CONTINUING TO
SHIFT SE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 INCHES AREAWIDE. OF COURSE, WE WILL WORK
TO FINE TUNE THIS FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT IT DEFINITELY
APPEARS THAT A VERY UNSETTLED WEEK IS IN STORE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING CONCERNS LIKELY ESCALATING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
ROUNDS OF -TSRA UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM AFTER 02/15Z COMBINE WITH
ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES
FURTHER INTO THE AIRSPACE. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 62 79 54 / 80 70 10 0
MLU 86 65 79 54 / 70 80 30 0
DEQ 75 52 74 47 / 90 50 0 0
TXK 78 57 76 51 / 80 70 10 0
ELD 79 59 77 49 / 80 80 10 0
TYR 79 58 75 52 / 90 70 0 0
GGG 80 59 76 51 / 90 70 10 0
LFK 84 62 79 54 / 80 80 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16
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