868
FXUS64 KSHV 022343
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL SO TO SPEAK...AT LEAST FOR
THE WEEKEND...ONCE WE GET RID OF OUR CURRENT STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS PUNCH BY LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE PLAYERS IN THIS CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE INCLUDES A
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR AND A COMBINATION
OF UPPER FORCING FROM A LEAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE KICKER TO PUSH ALL THIS CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST LATE TONIGHT BUT UNTIL THEN, WE WILL BE CONTENDING WITH A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MAINLY NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
THE MAIN THREATS. DID HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY FOR OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST HALF ONLY UNTIL WE CAN GET THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY
THROUGH THESE DEEP EAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND PARISHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RED RIVER
VALLEY WHICH FOR NOW WILL RESULT IN DRIER DEWPOINTS, AND SOMEWHAT
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FROM LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THESE SAME AREAS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.
13
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, WE HAVE A
MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH OUR CUTOFF
TROUGH REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, ANOTHER CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER
RIDGING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
IS STUBBORN AND HANGS ON A WHILE WITH PLEASANT WEATHER USUALLY
ACROSS OUR REGION GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF OUR REGION NEAR OR
UNDER THE RIDGE BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS WE MOVE INTO TUE
AND WED OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS WANT TO KEEP THIS PATTERN
PROGRESSIVE AND THUS, PUTS US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TROUGH AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS VALLEY AND THAT WILL
RESULT IN AT THE VERY LEAST, ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS,
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEARER
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. DID HOLD ONTO CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON WED
AND JUST CHANCE POPS ON THU BEFORE WE TRY TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, SVR WATCH CANCELLED WITH LINGERING
ANVIL THUNDER FROM KLFK TO KMLU THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS SHIFTING
TO N/NE WITH FROPA AND 5-15KT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER ENERGY PULLS AWAY BEFORE DAYBREAK, BUT SOME VCTS ALONG I-20
03-09Z FOR THIS ISOLD TS COVERAGE ELEVATED OVER DEEPENING COOL
AIR. IFR/MVFR FOR A GOOD WHILE OVERNIGHT IMPROVING QUICKLY TO SKC
12-18Z. SUPER NICE WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NEXT CONVECTION TUES. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 78 54 78 / 80 10 0 0
MLU 64 79 54 77 / 80 20 0 0
DEQ 51 74 47 76 / 40 0 0 0
TXK 56 76 51 77 / 60 0 0 0
ELD 58 76 49 76 / 80 0 0 0
TYR 57 76 52 77 / 70 0 0 0
GGG 57 76 51 77 / 80 0 0 0
LFK 62 78 53 79 / 80 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24
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