246
FXUS64 KSHV 030307
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AREAS OF -SHRA HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION, AS DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ENTRAINED E AHEAD OF THE POSITIVE
TILT TROUGH THAT HAS BEGUN TO DIG SE INTO OK. MEANWHILE, THE
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
OUTFLOW BNDRY LINGERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA,
WITH A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT NOTED FARTHER NW ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF N TX INTO SE OK AND INTO THE OZARKS. WHILE THE SEVERE
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED, THE H700 TROUGH EVIDENT FROM NW
AR INTO SE OK/N TX IN VC OF THE FRONT HAS INDUCED ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED -SHRA REDEVELOPMENT, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE THE LINGERING
CONVECTION BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATE WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.
HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS TONIGHT TO RESPECT THE DIMINISHING
CONVECTION COVERAGE, BUT DID KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT THAN
THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM PROGS GIVEN THE ONGOING -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
WHICH CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD WSW INTO N TX. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED
THIS TREND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE LAST OF THE RAINS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO MIN TEMPS BASED ON THE 02Z OBS, BUT COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SPILL SE IN THE REGION
WITH THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, SVR WATCH CANCELLED WITH LINGERING
ANVIL THUNDER FROM KLFK TO KMLU THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS SHIFTING
TO N/NE WITH FROPA AND 5-15KT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER ENERGY PULLS AWAY BEFORE DAYBREAK, BUT SOME VCTS ALONG I-20
03-09Z FOR THIS ISOLD TS COVERAGE ELEVATED OVER DEEPENING COOL
AIR. IFR/MVFR FOR A GOOD WHILE OVERNIGHT IMPROVING QUICKLY TO SKC
12-18Z. SUPER NICE WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NEXT CONVECTION TUES. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 78 54 78 / 60 10 0 0
MLU 63 79 54 77 / 60 20 0 0
DEQ 51 74 47 76 / 40 0 0 0
TXK 56 76 51 77 / 60 0 0 0
ELD 58 76 49 76 / 60 10 0 0
TYR 57 76 52 77 / 60 0 0 0
GGG 58 76 51 77 / 60 0 0 0
LFK 61 78 53 79 / 80 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...24
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