160
FXUS64 KSHV 030600
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AREAS OF -SHRA HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION, AS DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ENTRAINED E AHEAD OF THE POSITIVE
TILT TROUGH THAT HAS BEGUN TO DIG SE INTO OK. MEANWHILE, THE
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
OUTFLOW BNDRY LINGERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA,
WITH A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT NOTED FARTHER NW ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF N TX INTO SE OK AND INTO THE OZARKS. WHILE THE SEVERE
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED, THE H700 TROUGH EVIDENT FROM NW
AR INTO SE OK/N TX IN VC OF THE FRONT HAS INDUCED ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED -SHRA REDEVELOPMENT, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE THE LINGERING
CONVECTION BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATE WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.
HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS TONIGHT TO RESPECT THE DIMINISHING
CONVECTION COVERAGE, BUT DID KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT THAN
THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM PROGS GIVEN THE ONGOING -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
WHICH CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD WSW INTO N TX. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED
THIS TREND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE LAST OF THE RAINS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO MIN TEMPS BASED ON THE 02Z OBS, BUT COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SPILL SE IN THE REGION
WITH THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
FOR THE 03/06Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 03/12Z-15Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRSPACE INCLUDING KMLU. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PEAK NEAR 10 KTS BY 03/18Z-04/00Z WITH VFR VIS/CIGS RETURNING
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AFTER 03/18Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 54 78 55 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 79 54 77 54 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 74 47 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 76 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 76 49 76 49 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 76 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 51 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 78 53 79 55 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16
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