210
FXUS64 KSHV 031145
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
OUR MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF
THE REGION AS OF 3 AM WITH A RAPID EROSION OF CLOUD COVER IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ADVANCING ACROSS OUR SE HALF
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING, ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF OUR CWA AFTER
DAYBREAK AND JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. BEYOND THAT, WE ARE LOOKING AT
A DELIGHTFUL WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES RETURNING AREAWIDE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES IN THIS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS DEWPOINTS DROP OFF
INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE BY THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SO MAKE SURE TO ENJOY THESE NEXT FEW
CRISP, COOL MORNINGS FOR A CHANGE AS MID 40S TO MID 50S GREET US
AROUND SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL
CLOSELY MIRROR THOSE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S
AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
/19/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WE HOLD ON TO ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST TAKES
A TURN TOWARD WET AND STORMY ONCE AGAIN. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAKENING OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
GIVES WAY TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING EAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ON TUESDAY, HELPING TO SLOWLY USHER A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES DURING THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD. GIVEN OUR ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, THESE POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE
RAIN AMOUNTS PRESENT A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT SO WE HAVE
COORDINATED WITH WPC ON A DAY 4 MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE DURATION OF NEXT WEEK'S RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
EXTEND THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY CHURN ITS WAY FROM THE CENTRAL US
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A DIRECT AIM ON OUR REGION. THEREFORE, EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, ALBEIT LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COMPARED TO WHAT TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING. REGARDLESS,
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BEYOND THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT WELCOME AND
WILL ONLY EXACERBATE WHAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING EVENT FOLLOWED BY SUBSEQUENT LAKE/RIVER FLOODING
EXTENDING WELL BEYOND NEXT WEEK.
AS IF THAT ISN'T CONCERNING ENOUGH, TUESDAY'S EVENT COULD ALSO
BRING WITH IT AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT ALTHOUGH EARLIER
TIMING DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAY PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD
POTENTIAL. OF COURSE, THIS IS SOMETHING ELSE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR WHILE IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WILL BE THE OVERARCHING CONCERNS BASED ON THE REASONS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
FOR THE 03/12Z TAF UPDATE, IFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AIRSPACE
INCLUDING KMLU. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR
10 KTS BY 03/18Z-04/00Z WITH VFR VIS/CIGS RETURNING ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE AFTER 03/18Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 53 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 80 53 76 53 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 75 46 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 50 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 78 48 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 76 51 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 77 50 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 79 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16
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