836
FXUS64 KSHV 040004
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PRODUCED SEVERE
WEATHER AND CONSIDERABLE FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MUCH DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FUNNELED INTO
THE REGION, INDICATIVE OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY, NORTHWEST
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, JUST A BEAUTIFUL MAY DAY. SFC
RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THAT WILL MEAN
WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A LIGHT NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT BUT NOT BY MUCH. STILL
UNDERCUT NBM MOS TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER
AND 50S SOUTH.
LIKEWISE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH SFC RIDGING
DIRECTLY OVHD FOR SUNDAY, WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
CONCERNING MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. ONE MORE COOL NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE SEE A TRANSITION TO OUR SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ON MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING IN THE MIDDLE 40S
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
13
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
BY MONDAY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS VALLEY WITH DEEP TROUGHING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS
TYPICALLY A BLOCKING PATTERN FOR US, BEING IN BETWEEN TROUGHS,
BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NOT HOLD UNFORTUNATELY AS MORE INCLEMENT
WEATHER IS BACK IN THE FORECAST AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT BUT
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR REGION BECOMES MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO OPEN UP
VERY SLOWLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION BECOMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
MAGNITUDE OF UPPER FORCING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERSPREADING OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE IN
THE WAY OF EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING UNFORTUNATELY.
WPC HAS ALREADY INTRODUCED A MDT EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION FOR THIS TUE/TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND
WITH MOST ALL OF OUR RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR REGION, THIS WILL ONLY COMPOUND THE ALREADY SERIOUS
HYDROLOGIC FLOODING CONCERNS WE CONTINUE DEALING WITH. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME AS THIS WILL
DEPEND ON A WARM FRONT RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM SE TX AND SW LA
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR OR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY RESIDE ASSUMING WE CAN GET THE WARM SECTOR THAT FAR NORTH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE RETURNING WARM FRONT. SPC HAS NOT
OUTLOOKED THIS REGION YET BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
ADDITIONAL THREAT TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MORE CERTAIN FLOODING
THREAT TUE/TUE NIGHT.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ONLY MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OF
COURSE HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES AND
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING CLOSER TO OUR REGION, DID UNDERCUT MAX
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO E OK/TX AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. SO GENERALLY NW-NE WINDS THIS CYCLE 5-10K. OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR WEATHER WILL BE ON TUESDAY. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 78 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 52 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 45 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 76 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 52 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 50 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 52 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24
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