185
FXUS64 KSHV 041137
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
637 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT OUTDOOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY.
- WHEN ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY, DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFE-THREATENING HAZARD (SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL).
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS/RAIN TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
POST-FRONTAL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DEW POINTS BELOW 50 DEGREES ALLOWING
FOR MORE EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING THIS WEEKEND (HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS COMING UP FROM LOWS
IN THE 40S). THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE
LAST MOMENT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR THE SEASON. /16/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ALOFT, THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
DUE TO A GRADUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHIFTING A TROUGH
ACROSS TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 3-5
INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF WET SOILS. IF SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ON TUESDAY, TREES WITH WATERLOGGED ROOT
SYSTEMS MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN OVER. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
FOR THE 04/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SKC WILL DOMINATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TREND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 4-8 KTS AFTER
04/15Z, THEN GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM ONCE AGAIN BY
05/00Z.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 54 82 63 / 0 0 0 40
MLU 77 52 81 60 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 75 47 78 55 / 0 0 0 20
TXK 78 51 81 59 / 0 0 0 30
ELD 76 48 81 56 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 77 54 80 63 / 0 0 20 60
GGG 77 52 80 60 / 0 0 10 50
LFK 79 55 82 64 / 0 0 20 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...19
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